WIC Online Colloquium
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Roland Rau, Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research
On the Momentum of Pseudo-Stable Populations
Wednesday, April 27th , 2022
15:00 – 16:00 (CEST)
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Abstract
Stable population theory remains the standard model for the analytical study of population dynamics. It assumes a closed female population with time-invariant but age-specific fertility and mortality. We begin with a quick refresher
about the transient and long-term effects of these assumptions (e.g., the intrinsic rate of growth and the age structure) as well as the classic case of population momentum. Pseudo-stable populations relax the strict fertility assumption: It allows fertility
to decline at a constant rate. We show analytically and via simulations how births, population size, population momentum and other characteristics develop in this scenario with varying fertility transition speeds.
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