FIW

Dear Colleague,

We cordially invite you to the wiiw-FIW-Seminar in International Economics on

Thursday, April 16^th, 4 pm

wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, lecture hall (ground floor)

Macroeconomic Stability and the Single European Labor Market

Timo Baas

University of Duisburg-Essen

Abstract

The Single European Labor Market is more and more seen as an instrument to face short-term challenges like diverging unemployment rates and asymmetric business cycles. Most labor economists, however, agree that the common labor market is far from completion even though migration increased strongly after EU-enlargement. It is, therefore, an open question to which extend this unfinished common market performs its function. In this paper, we analyze the impact of economic conditions on bilateral migration from Poland to Germany by estimating a two-country DSGE model using Bayesian methods. Our findings imply that migration, indeed, follows cyclical patterns and that it fosters economic stability. This, however, only holds true for the country of origin, as macroeconomic shocks of the destination country have a minor impact on migration.

Keywords: DSGE model, migration, open economy macroeconomics, Bayesian econometrics

JEL Classification: F22, F41, E32

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a center of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit our website for the current version of the programme at:

http://wiiw.ac.at/fiw-wiiw-seminars-in-international-economics-es-6.html

http://www.fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=748

(Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our homepage http://wiiw.ac.at/events.html after the respective seminars.)

Best regards

Julia Grübler

Organizer

Michaela Bönisch

Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw)

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

Rahlgasse 3, A-1060 Wien

T: +43 1 533 66 10 - 40