ECONOMETRICS RESEARCH SEMINAR	INVITATION
R E M I N D E R The Department of Economics and Finance at the Institute for Advanced Studies cordially invites you to the following Econometrics Research Seminar Thursday, April 9, 2015 IHS, Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna, HS II 9:00 am (Please note that the seminar will start at 9 am sharp!) Michele Lenza European Central Bank Priors for the long run Abstract: We propose a class of prior distributions that discipline the long-run behavior of Vector Autoregressions (VARs). These priors can be naturally elicited using economic theory, which provides guidance on the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series in the long run. Our priors for the long run are conjugate, and can thus be trivially implemented using dummy observations and combined with other popular priors. In VARs with standard macroeconomic variables, a prior based on the long-run predictions of a wide class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. . paper jointly with: Domenico Giannone and Giogio E. Primiceri We are looking forward to seeing you! Institute for Advanced Studies Department of Economics and Finance Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna, Austria Tel.: +43 1 599 91 145 e-Mail: economics@ihs.ac.at http://economics.ihs.ac.at		LINKS DIRECTIONS TO IHS on Google maps ECONOMETRICS RESEARCH SEMINAR on Google calendar ECONOMICS SEMINARS IN VIENNA on Google calendar
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