Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren,
Wir laden Sie herzlich zum VOSTA Freitagsseminar von Herrn Jan Hannes Lang, Europäische
Zentralbank, mit dem Titel "Semi-Structural Credit Gap estimation" ein.
Termin:
Freitag, 20. April 2018, 11:00 Uhr
Ort:
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Veranstaltungssaal, Erdgeschoss
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3
1090 Wien
Abstract:
This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household
credit stock is derived. Semi-structural household credit gaps are obtained as deviations of the real household credit stock from this fundamental trend level. Estimates of these credit gaps for 12 EU countries over the past 25 years yield credit cycles that
last between 15 to 25 years with amplitudes of around 20%. The early warning properties for financial crises are superior compared to credit gaps that are obtained from purely statistical filters. The proposed semi-structural household credit gaps could therefore
provide useful information for the formulation of countercyclical macroprudential policy.
Um Ihre verlässliche An- bzw. Abmeldung ersuchen
wir bis Dienstag, 17. April 2018, an event-management@oenb.at.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen,
Event-Management
Event-Management
Abteilung für Öffentlichkeitsarbeit und Finanzbildung
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Wien
T +43(0)1 404 20 6620
event-management@oenb.at
www.oenb.at