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We have the pleasure of inviting you to the SUERF I OeNB Workshop entitled
“Equilibrium Real Interest Rates – concepts, current and future drivers: New insights and policy implications”,
which the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) and SUERF will host as a hybrid event on
Thursday, 7 December 2023.
Motivation
A secular decline in r* was one of the key drivers of the strategy reviews carried out by the ECB and the FED in the years 2019-2021. While we have seen an increase in r* after the multiple shocks that started with the Covid crisis, it is not clear whether
the secular decline in r* may have stopped or reversed or whether this increase is only temporary. This is an important question in the short-term because it will give an indication of how much central banks have to tighten to reign on inflation. In the medium
and long-term it is important because it will influence the type of instruments that central banks should have in their toolkits if we were again approaching the effective lower bound on interest rates.
This workshop calls for a broader view of “equilibrium interest rate”. It explores various concepts of the natural rate along different dimensions, such as time (short versus long-run
horizon, short-term versus long-term rates) or sectoral (public debt vs. private capital). Moreover, it addresses the novel concept of the financial (in)stability rate of interest. In addition to a comparative and careful juxtaposition and appraisal of the
various concepts, the workshop seeks to answer the following questions: (1) What are past and future trends in the level of these various “equilibrium rates”? (2) Which “equilibrium rate of interest” may be most informative for which policy purpose?
This workshop brings together the latest theoretical and empirical research on this topic, which is central for both monetary policy and longer-term structural policies. Presentations
aim to be accessible to audiences active in the policy, advisory and investment community, to allow immediate insights for policy and investment decisions.
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Agenda
I Thursday, 7 December 2023
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08:45
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Welcome and opening remarks
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Living with R* or Working on R*
Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
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09:00
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Session 1: Conceptual challenges: which r* to look at for what purpose?
Keynote lecture: The future long-run level of interest rates
Ricardo Reis, A. W. Phillips Professor of Economics, LSE I SUERF Fellow
Discussants
Stefano Neri, Head, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Directorate, Banca d’Italia I SUERF
Adrian Penalver, Deputy Director, Monetary and Financial Studies Directorate, Banque de France
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10:30
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Break
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11:00
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Session 2: Endogeneity of r* to monetary policy
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Chair:
Deniz Igan, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis, BIS I SUERF Vice-President
The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors
Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Director , Monetary Policy Strategy Office, Bank of Thailand
Co-author: Fabian Winkler, Federal Reserve Board
Star struck: Monetary Policy and the Neutral Real Rate
Garo Garabedian, Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Division, Central Bank of Ireland
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
Gianluca Benigno, Professor of Economics, University of Lausanne
co-authors: Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro (Fed NY), Albert Queralto (Fed Washington)
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12:45
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Lunch
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13:30
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Session 3: The long view: looking back and ahead and implications for monetary policy
Chair: Ernest Gnan, Secretary General, SUERF
The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest
Francesco Paolo Mongelli, Senior Adviser, DG Monetary Policy, ECB I Honorary Professor, Goethe University Frankfurt
co-authors: Jan Willem van den End, De Nederlandsche Bank, Wolfgang Pointner, OeNB
Long-run trends in long-maturity real rates 1311-2021
Paul Schmelzing, Assistant Prof. of Finance, Boston College I Research Fellow, Hoover Institution Stanford
co-authors: Kenneth S. Rogoff (Harvard University), Barbara Rossi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Housing and the secular decline in real interest rates
Markus Knell, Senior Expert, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Secular drivers of the natural rate of interest: Looking ahead
Josef Platzer, Economist, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Co-author: Marcel Peruffo (IMF)
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15:15
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End
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REGISTRATION
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Registrations are handled by the OeNB event management:
www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop
To register, please use the following
link.
You will receive an e-mail with your personal registration link to the e-mail address you entered,
with which you can complete the registration process.
www.oenb-events.at/suerf-oenb-workshop
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www.suerf.org/r*
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Venue: Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Veranstaltungssaal,
Ground Floor
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online via Webex
Date: Thursday, 7 December 2023 | Start: 08:45 AM | End: 03:00 PM
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Feel free to share this invitation with colleagues in your institution
who might be interested to attend!
We look forward to having you join us at the SUERF | OeNB Workshop
Yours sincerely,
SUERF Secretariat
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