Dear Sir or Madam,

We have the pleasure of inviting you to the OeNB-Freitagsseminar with Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University, which the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) will host on 3 June 2022.

Title
Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Abstract

Using novel survey evidence on consumer inflation expectations disaggregated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) categories, we document the paradox that consumers' aggregate inflation expectations usually exceed and are more volatile than any category expectation. We explore procedures for aggregating category inflation expectations, and find that the inconsistency between aggregate and aggregated inflation expectations rises with subjective uncertainty and systematically relates to socio-economic characteristics. Overall, our results are inconsistent with the notion that consumers' aggregate inflation expectations comprise an expenditure-weighted sum of category beliefs. Moreover, aggregated inflation expectations explain a greater share of planned consumer spending than aggregate inflation expectations.

Date
Friday, 3 June 2022 | Start: 04:00 PM | End: 05:30 PM              

Venue
The event is planned online via Webex 

Seminar language
English

Join us by registering by 1 June 2022, at the latest by using the following link: https://www.oenb-events.at/en/oenb-freitagsseminar-with-raphael-schoenle/registration/

Kind regards,

Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Event Management

Event Management
Press Office

Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria
T +43(0)1 404 20 6920
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