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Dear SUERF Members,
When uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?
Join us on Thursday, 2nd July, 2020 for a book presentation and lively discussion with
John Kay (University of Oxford), Jean Charles Rochet (University of Zurich I SUERF Fellow) and
David T Llewellyn (Loughborough University I SUERF Council).
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Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines
our lives. Lord (Mervyn) King, former Governor of the Bank of England, and Professor John Kay, two of the world's most eminent economists, have spent their professional lives considering and discussing these themes.
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing
numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative,
uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
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Kind regards,
SUERF Secretariat
With friendly support of the Intesa Sanpaolo Chair in Economics of Financial Regulation, Bocconi University.
Visit our
website to view the video and read the report
of last week’s webinar The International
Role of the Euro: has COVID-19 affected the outlook?
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