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We are pleased to announce that registration is now open for the forthcoming
SUERF • Banco de España
• Bank of Finland
• Bank of Italy
• ECB workshop
on
“Measuring economic slack or shortages: new methods and ways forward”
, to be held virtually on
Monday, 27 March 2023.
Motivation
The recent post-covid, geopolitical and energy crisis period has been characterized by conflicting indicators on whether the economy is below, at or above its potential. This is not least due to the multiplicity of large shocks – supply and demand, external
and domestic, temporary or lasting, global, idiosyncratic and sectoral – the heightened uncertainty that surrounds them and their transmission to economies. This complex setting is likely to continue, with climate change and the energy transition as well as
secular shifts in global value chains looming. The issue is central due to its important role for adequate monetary, fiscal, and structural policies as well as for inflation forecasting. This workshop takes stock of major institutions’ theoretical and empirical
approaches to measure potential output, labor market conditions and other indicators developed to gauge price pressures. The impact of sectoral shifts and various forms of market frictions to economic slack and shortages will be featured prominently.
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CET
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Agenda
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14:00
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Welcome: Ernest Gnan, SUERF
Opening remarks: Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland
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Session 1:
Longer-term implications of supply disruptions, sectoral change and scarring for potential output
Chair:
Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d ‘Italia
From bottlenecks to supply-side headwinds
Deniz Igan, BIS I SUERF
The impact of the COVID-19 shock on euro area potential output: a sectoral approach
Katalin Bodnar, ECB
The scarring effects of deep contractions
David Aikman, King’s College London
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15:20
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Virtual Break
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15:25
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Session
2:
Measuring the output gap in times of large shocks – tools and recent advances
Chair: Eva Ortega, Banco de España
Title - tbc
Fabio Canova, BI Norwegian Business School
State of current work in the Eurosystem
David Sondermann, ECB
A business cycle heatmap for the EU, the Eurozone and 27 member countries
Matthias Strifler and
Arto Kokkinen, National Audit Office of Finland
Robust real time OG estimates
Christian Ochsner, German Council of Economic Experts
Evaluating estimates of potential output and output gaps
Bela Szörfi, ECB
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17:25
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Closing remarks:
Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB
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17:30
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End
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To participate, please register by using the following
LINK.
Feel free to share this invitation with colleagues who might be interested to attend!
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On behalf of the program committee and the co-organizing institutions,
We look forward to your participation!
www.suerf.org/EconomicSlack
Program Committee
Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB,
Ernest Gnan, SUERF, Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland, Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d ‘Italia, and
Eva Ortega, Banco de España
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