Dear all,
we kindly invite you to our next ECON Theory and Policy Seminar talk on
Monday, October 23, 2023 from 4:00-5:30 pm (Seminarroom DB04 yellow, Freihaus Buidling, yellow area, 4th floor)
"Inflation Expectations at Times of High and Low Inflation"
Michal Marencak (National Bank of Slovakia)
https://sites.google.com/view/michalmarencak/home
This paper presents two novel findings on household inflation expectations during periods of high and low inflation. First, the impact of inflation expectations on durable consumption varies over time and depends on the expected inflation
regime. Anticipating rising inflation relative to positive inflation enhances the readiness to spend on durables during periods of surging inflation but not during deflationary times. Moreover, the absence of explicit inflation expectations reduces consumption
propensity, particularly during times of surging inflation. Second, outside the stable inflation range (2-3%), individual expected inflation levels drive the variance of aggregate inflation expectations (intensive margin). However, it is the anticipation of
higher or positive inflation (extensive margin) that influences the willingness to consume. These findings suggest regime- and agent-specific Euler equations.
Further Events:
https://www.tuwien.at/en/mg/econ/events
Best,
Julia Hutter for
Alexia Fuernkranz-Prskawetz
Julia Hutter
TU Wien
Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics
Research Group Economics
Phone: +43 1 58801 10531
Mail:
julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at