Dear Sir or Madam,

We have the pleasure of inviting you to the 82nd East Jour Fixe of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) on the topic of “Debt in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: vulnerabilities and opportunities”, which will take place at the OeNB in Vienna on June 11, 2018.

While debt levels in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), both in the public and private sectors, remain broadly below the levels of other major emerging markets and the euro area average, they have risen considerably compared with pre-crisis levels. In some CESEE countries, public debt increased by more than 30 percentage points of GDP from 2008 to end-2016. In case of a tail event, contracted fiscal space may weaken the scope for public investments and constrict government support for the private sector thus limiting the use of discretionary fiscal policy to stabilize the economy. Private sector debt has reached 100% of GDP in the most indebted CESEE countries (i.e. the Baltic countries, Croatia and Bulgaria) – a level well below the euro area average. Relative to the pre-2008 period, credit growth has slowed down, even turning temporarily negative in some CESEE countries, with deleveraging a necessary response to the crisis. Recently, credit growth has, however, rebounded in most CESEE countries. This naturally raises the issues of what drives debt, its sustainability (also with regard to potential spillovers arising from the “normalization” of monetary policy in major advanced economies) and its “wise” (i.e. productivity-enhancing) use.

The 82nd East Jour Fixe will address these issues in three sessions. Session 1 will focus on public sector debt and sustainability considerations in CESEE. A particular focus will be on the structure of public debt in the region and on the role fiscal rules play. Session 2 will deal with developments and drivers of private debt, covering both corporate and household debt and its sustainability. This session will also explore if there is a need for further deleveraging in CESEE. Session 3 will then bring together representatives from the private sector, from CESEE institutions and from international financial institutions to discuss what institutions can contribute to ensuring optimal and sustainable debt developments in the public and private sector.

Please find the preliminary program for the East Jour Fixe attached.

If you are unable to attend the workshop, we would kindly ask you to forward the invitation to other colleagues who might be interested in participating.

Please reply before June 01, 2018 by e-mail to event-management@oenb.at.

Yours sincerely,

Event-Management

Event-Management
Communications and Financial Literacy Division

Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria
T +43(0)1 404 20 6620
event-management@oenb.at
www.oenb.at