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Einladung: WIFO-Extern zum Thema "Non Updating Household Consumption with Fuzzy Social Accounts"
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Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren,
das WIFO lädt Sie herzlich zum nächsten Termin der Vortragsreihe WIFO-Extern ein:
DIENSTAG, 4. Oktober 2016, 13:15 Uhr
WIFO, Großer Sitzungssaal
Michael L. Lahr (Rutgers University)
"Non Updating Household Consumption with Fuzzy Social Accounts"
Kommentar: Jarko Fidrmuc (Zeppelin Universität)
Abstract:
Many techniques are available for updating Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs). Here we use a semi-qualitative approach based on the fuzzy set theory. Essentially, we restrict estimates of interindustry coefficients to just seven possible size categories when they are updates. These rough categorical estimates are transformed to some quantitate functions (domains that define ranges of coefficients sizes). We then use the fuzzy matrix that results to model the impacts of various exogenous shocks on the composition of household expenditures. These resulting model functions are interpreted as quasi probability density functions so a quasi-stochastic programming problem is used to estimate fuzzy impacts. The fuzzy results are compared to results estimated via a classically created SAM. In an empirical exercise, we use a 57-industry 2010 SAM for New Jersey and increase each exogenous factor, in turn, by 10 percent. The difference in estimates between the fuzzy and classical approaches on total household expenditures never exceeds 0.044 percent. This suggests the fuzzy approach is a promising way to update SAMs, at least those used to estimate economic impacts.
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Wir würden uns freuen, Sie zu diesem Vortrag am WIFO begrüßen zu dürfen!
Christian Glocker
WIFO – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Arsenal, Objekt 20
1030 Wien
Tel.: +43 (1) 798 26 01-303
Fax: +43 (1) 798 93 86
Web: http://www.wifo.ac.at
E-Mail: christian.glocker@wifo.ac.at
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