Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren!
Anbei übermitteln wir Ihnen die Einladung zu einem VOSTA-Freitagsseminar von
Jean-Baptiste Michau
(Ecole Polytechnique)
mit dem Titel
„Secular Stagnation: Theory and Remedies”.
Termin
Freitag, 12. Mai 2017, 11.00 Uhr
Ort
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Wien
Veranstaltungssaal, EG
Abstract
This paper relies on a
Ramsey model with money to offer a simple theory of secular stagnation. The permanent failure of the economy to produce at full capacity results from three features: 1. The
combination of the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate and of an inflation ceiling imposes a lower bound on the real interest rate; 2. Some dynastic households have a high propensity to save, due to a preference for wealth; 3. A downward wage rigidity
breaks the deflationary spiral resulting from the lack of demand. In this framework, I derive the paradox of flexibility, of thrift, and of toil. If the inflation ceiling cannot be raised, then the government needs to rely on fiscal policy to escape secular
stagnation. However, a conventional fiscal stimulus is not an efficient response to a permanent liquidity trap, and can even be welfare reducing. The solution is instead to tax household wealth and to subsidize income from physical capital, through an investment
subsidy or a reduction in the taxation of corporate income. This optimal policy is revenue neutral and implements the first-best allocation of resources. However, to avoid a jump in the price level upon implementation of the optimal policy, the government
needs to redeem the money that had previously been supplied to finance public debits.
Um Ihre Anmeldung ersuchen wir bis
Mittwoch, 10. Mai 2017.
Wir freuen uns auf Ihre Teilnahme und stehen für Fragen gerne zur Verfügung.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen,
Event-Management
Communications and Financial Literacy Division
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3,
1090 Vienna,
Austria
T +43(0)1 404 20 6620