90th East Jour Fixe 

Dear Sir or Madam,

We have the pleasure of inviting you to the 90th East Jour Fixe of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) which will be hosted as a hybrid event on October 4, 2022.

The workshop will focus on

“Can we win the battle against uncertainty? New approaches to macroeconomic forecasting in CESEE”.

In the last 15 years, professional forecasters have been confronted with several crises, each of them distinct in terms of underlying causes, international propagation, policy responses and economic impact. Each crisis has also brought about advances in modeling and data. Structural equilibrium models are used as well as judgment-free, highly complex, sometimes non-linear, and time-variant models. Text analysis performed by artificial intelligence is competing with expert-informed forecasts based on national accounting. New and unconventional data sources are increasingly being explored, allowing for data to be collected at a higher frequency and with ever greater granularity. In addition to traditional economic data, forecasters are also including night-light data, truck mileage, scanner data or mobility trends in their analyses, to name but a few unconventional data sources. Will these advances be sufficient to address today’s increased volatility and elevated uncertainty? Can they provide timely and unerring forecasts in the current crisis? After all, it is especially at the onset of a crisis that policymakers need timely and accurate forecasts to design effective policy responses.

The 90th East Jour Fixe will bring together professional forecasters from international institutions, central banks and academia to share lessons learned from past crises, explore latest trends in forecasting and discuss challenges associated with data availability. In doing so, the focus will be put on Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies. While forecasting in the region no longer has to rely on short time series, the use of novel and unconventional data sources still varies greatly from one CESEE country to another.

Date
Tuesday, 4 October 2022 | Start: 01:00 PM (CEST)

Venue
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna
or
Online via Webex

Program
A full agenda of the workshop can be found here.

COVID-19 regulations
Please find our COVID-19 access regulations here.

Join us by registering by September 27, 2022, at the latest.

I cannot participate.

If you would like to notify us of any address changes or if you would like other interested experts to receive a personal invitation, please contact the OeNB’s event management by e-mail at event-management@oenb.at.

We look forward to having you join us at the 90th East Jour Fixe.

Yours sincerely,
Event-Management

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