Dear all,
we kindly invite you to our next Economic Theory & Policy talk
on Mon, 1st of June, 2026, 4:00 PM - TU Wien, Sem.R. DA green 04 (Freihaus Building, 4th floor, green area)
Alena Wabitsch (WU)
„Incentivizing Inflation Expectations“ (co-authored with Sergii Drobot, Daniela Puzzello and Ryan Rholes)
Accurate inflation expectations are central to economic modeling and policy. Yet major surveys elicit them without performance-based marginal incentives, despite their well-established importance to belief data quality
in experimental economics. We show that marginal incentives raise effort and fundamentally reshape reported inflation expectations: lowering upward bias by 3.4 percentage points, reducing disagreement by one-third, closing the gender gap, and tripling learning
rates in an RCT. Incentivized expectations are more consistent and better predict spending. Calibrating a simple New Keynesian model, we demonstrate that these differences matter: marginal incentives sharpen empirical inference and improve policy guidance
- without increasing participant remuneration.
Further events: https://www.tuwien.at/en/mg/econ/events
Best,
Julia
Julia Hutter
TU Wien
Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics
Research Group Economics
Phone: +43 1 58801 10531
Mail: julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at
https://econ.tuwien.ac.at/