Dear all, we kindly invite you to our next ECON Theory and Policy Seminar talk on Monday, November 27, 2023 from 4:00-5:30 pm (Seminarroom DB04 yellow, Freihaus Buidling, yellow area, 4th floor) "Childlessness and Inter-Temporal Fertility Choice " Fabian Suida (WU Wien) https://www.wu.ac.at/economics/mitarbeiter-innen/siuda-f/ This paper develops and estimates a dynamic structural model of fertility with endogenous marriage formation, linking the timing of fertility to its intensive (number of children) and extensive (having children) margin. The model features rational, forward-looking agents who make decisions on marriage and fertility, and are exposed to declining fecundity rates over time. In every period, agents face a trade-off between work and child-rearing, and across time there is a trade-off between having children early or late in life. The model parameters are identified using four distinct facts of the 2008 and2012 German Micro census: (i) fertility until age 30 decreases with education for married and single women, (ii) fertility after age 30 increases with education for married and single women, (iii) childlessness increases with women’s education, (iv) marriage rates decrease with education for women and increase with education for men. I obtain three main insights. First, postponement of childbirth combined with the natural decline of fecundity overtime can explain up to 15% of childlessness, depending on education. Second, by estimating the model separately for East and West Germany, I find that institutions and economic conditions matter: the two major factors for childlessness in West Germany are postponement of childbirth and high opportunity costs of children due to lack of public childcare. By contrast, in East Germany, social sterility plays a larger role. Finally, using the estimated model parameters for counterfactual analysis, I evaluate consequences of reoccurring labor market interruptions and policies aimed at reconciling work and family life. Further Events: https://www.tuwien.at/en/mg/econ/events Best, Julia Hutter for Alexia Fuernkranz-Prskawetz Julia Hutter TU Wien Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics Research Group Economics Phone: +43 1 58801 10531 Mail: julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at<mailto:julia.hutter@tuwien.ac.at> https://econ.tuwien.ac.at/