[cid:image002.png@01CEBF6B.D0B28790] VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR INVITATION The University of Vienna and the Department of Economics and Finance at the Institute for Advanced Studies cordially invite you to the following Vienna Joint Economics Seminar <http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Papers/20130226_Paper_Zimmermann.pdf> Thursday, December 10, 2015 Attention - New Address Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna Lecture Room E02, ground floor 4:00 pm Bård Harstad<http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/people/aca/bardh/> and Zeno Enders<http://www.uni-heidelberg.de/fakultaeten/wiso/awi/professuren/wipol/CV_Enders.html> U Oslo University of Heidelberg The political economy of weak treaties (Bård Harstad ) Abstract: tba paper jointly with Marco Battaglini and Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations (Zeno Enders) Abstract: We assess the contribution of "undue optimism" (Pigou) to business-cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines long-run economic activity. We develop a new strategy to estimate the effects of optimism shocks|autonomous, but fundamentally unwarranted changes in the assessment of productivity. Specifically, we show that by including survey-based nowcast errors regarding current output growth in a VAR model, it is possible to identify optimism shocks. These shocks, in line with theory, generate negative nowcast errors, but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for about 20 percent of short-run fluctuations. paper jointly with Michael Kleemann and Gernot J. Müller We are looking forward to seeing you! Institute for Advanced Studies Department of Economics and Finance Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria Tel.: +43 1 599 91 145 e-Mail: economics@ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at> http://economics.ihs.ac.at<http://economics.ihs.ac.at/> LINKS DIRECTIONS TO IHS on Google maps<https://www.google.at/maps/place/Josefst%C3%A4dter+Str.+39,+1080+Wien/@48.2097034,16.347588,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x476d07eb73d62273:0xc9ceed3310d2cbe5> VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=Europe/Vienna> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=Europe/Vienna> ECONOMICS SEMINARS <https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=Europe/Vienna> IN VIENNA<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=Europe/Vienna> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=Europe/Vienna> [cid:image003.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://economics.ihs.ac.at/> [cid:image004.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://econ.univie.ac.at/home/> [http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Others/FB-f-Logo__blue_512.png]<https://www.facebook.com/IHS.Economics.and.Finance> [http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Others/feed-icon-28x28.png] <http://www.facebook.com/feeds/page.php?id=177236688990366&format=atom10> Diese Zusendung erfolgt entsprechend den Bestimmungen des TKG 247107. Sollten Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen wuenschen, senden Sie uns bitte eine kurze Mitteilung an: economics@ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. If you do not want to receive our mailings please send an e-mail to: economics@ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. Also sent to noeg-l@wu.ac.at<mailto:noeg-l@wu.ac.at> (https://mailman.wu.ac.at/mailman/listinfo/noeg-l).