Dear colleagues, The Department of Economics cordially invites you to the WU Economic Research Seminar (Department Seminar) on Wednesday, March 10th, with Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame) on "Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs" Abstract: This paper provides survey evidence on firms' subjective uncertainty about future sales growth from a new panel data set of the German manufacturing sector. The main finding is that uncertainty reflects change: firms report more subjective uncertainty after either high or low growth realizations. In the cross section of firms, subjective uncertainty differs from statistical measures of uncertainty such as volatility: fast-growing and large firms report lower subjective uncertainty than fast-shrinking and small firms, respectively, even if they face shocks of similar size. By contrast, the substantial time variation in firm-specific subjective uncertainty resembles that in conditional volatility: both measures of uncertainty are mildly persistent and rise more when growth is temporarily low. Date: Wednesday, March 10th Time: 4.30 to 6 pm (CET) Location: MS Teams. You can access starting from 4.30 pm using this link<https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_ZTI4NWU4YjMtYzEwZS00ZGIwLTg3YjMtZjY3Yjg0YzM0NTA2%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%220504f721-d451-402b-b884-381428559e39%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%2284ec1e87-5802-4e0e-8cb5-f960b2d661c5%22%7d>. With best regards, Harald Oberhofer --- Univ.-Prof. Dr. Harald Oberhofer Institute for International Economics WU Vienna University of Economics and Business Phone: +43/1/31336-4984 Fax: +43/1/31336-4984 Email: harald.oberhofer@wu.ac.at<mailto:harald.oberhofer@wu.ac.at> Webpage: https://www.wu.ac.at/ie/mitarbeiter/harald-oberhofer/ Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) Phone: +43/1/7982601-468 Fax: +43/1/7989386 Email: harald.oberhofer@wifo.ac.at<mailto:harald.oberhofer@wifo.ac.at> Webpage: http://www.wifo.ac.at/harald_oberhofer