[FIW_Logo_de_en] English version Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, wir möchten Sie über kommende Veranstaltungen ianformieren, zu denen wir Sie herzlich einladen. Folgende Veranstaltungen finden in Kürze statt: * Präsentation der Studie: Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen (Online event) * Reminder: Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online Event) * Reminder: Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online Event) Präsentation der Studie: Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen (Online event) Das Bundeministerium für Digitalisierung und Wirtschaftsstandort (BMDW) lädt Sie und interessierte Kolleginnen und Kollegen am 17. 05. 2021 in der Zeit von 11:30 bis 12:30 Uhr zur Präsentation der Studie "Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen" ein. Diese wurde von einem Team des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft unter der Leitung von Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gabriel Felbermayr im Auftrag des BMDW verfasst. Im Anschluss an die Studienpräsentation wird ein hochkarätiges Panel die Ergebnisse und die Implikationen für die neue EU-Handelsstrategie diskutieren: * Margarete Schramböck (Bundesministerin für Digitalisierung und Wirtschaftsstandort) * Sabine Weyand (Leiterin der Generaldirektion Handel der Europäischen Kommission) * Gabriel Felbermayr (Präsident des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft) * Moderation: Hanna Kordik (Leiterin des Economist-Ressorts Die Presse) Die Veranstaltung findet als Zoom-Webinar statt, Teilnehmende können im Wege der Chat-Funktion mitdiskutieren. Nach Registrierung unter dem nachstehenden Link erhalten Sie Ihren persönlichen Zugangslink für die Veranstaltung: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_m-nhwC2mSoGfIL5NdHyOkw Reminder: Einladung zum Seminar in International Economics: Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Vortragender: Alejandro Cuñat, University of Vienna Zeit: Donnerstag, 6. Mai 2021, 16:00 Uhr Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/bilateral-trade-imbalances-online-event-e-516.html Dies ist eine Online-Veranstaltung über Zoom. Bitte registrieren Sie sich für den Einwahllink. Dieser wird Ihnen kurz vor der Veranstaltung zugesandt. Sprache: Englisch Description: This presentation is based on a paper<http://www.zymek.eu/papers.html> co-authored with Robert Zymek. Bilateral trade imbalances are determined by aggregate trade imbalances, production and expenditure patterns, and trade barriers. We calibrate a dynamic many-sector trade model to match the recent sectoral trade and production shares of 40 economies and the rest of the world. Through a variance decomposition and counterfactuals, the model allows us to assess the relative importance of these determinants for the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. Large pairwise asymmetries in residual trade "wedges" are needed for the model to match the data. These account for roughly 60% of the variation, with most of the rest due to differences in production and expenditure patterns. Aggregate trade imbalances play a minor role. A counterfactual trade policy which eliminates trade-wedge asymmetries would have sizeable effects on bilateral trade patterns and welfare. However, it would leave aggregate trade balances virtually unchanged. Reminder: Einladung zum Seminar in International Economics: Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Vortragender: Matt Burke, Bennett Institute for Public Policy and University of East Anglia Zeit: Donnerstag, 10. Juni 2021, 15:00 Uhr Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/rising-temperatures-falling-ratings-the-effect-of-climate... Dies ist eine Online-Veranstaltung über Zoom. Bitte registrieren Sie sich für den Einwahllink. Dieser wird Ihnen kurz vor der Veranstaltung zugesandt. Sprache: Englisch Description: The presentation is based on a paper<https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2127.html> co-authored with Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. Enthusiasm for 'greening the financial system' is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world's first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. Under various warming scenarios, we find evidence of climate-induced sovereign downgrades as early as 2030, increasing in intensity and across more countries over the century. We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2oC, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement, and following RCP 2.6 could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings. In contrast, under higher emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 8.5), 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030, with an average reduction of 1.02 notches, rising to 80 sovereigns facing an average downgrade of 2.48 notches by 2100. We calculate the effect of climate-induced sovereign downgrades on the cost of corporate and sovereign debt. Across the sample, climate change could increase the annual interest payments on sovereign debt by US$ 22-33 billion under RCP 2.6, rising to US$ 137-205 billion under RCP 8.5. The additional cost to corporates is US$ 7.2-12.6 billion under RCP 2.6, and US$ 35.8-62.6 billion under RCP 8.5. Wir freuen uns über Ihre Teilnahme an den Veranstaltungen. Mit freundlichen Grüßen Alexander Hudetz und Birgit Buschbom FIW-Projektbüro Es entspricht nicht unserer Philosophie Ihnen unerwünschte E-Mails zukommen zu lassen. Falls Sie keine weiteren E-Mails vom FIW erhalten möchten, schreiben Sie bitte an das Projektbüro<mailto:fiw-pb@fiw.at> mit dem Betreff "Abmelden". __________________________________ Der Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft (FIW) (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) ist eine Kooperation zwischen der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU), der Universität Wien, der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz und der Universität Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw und WSR. FIW wird von den Bundesministerien BMBFW und BMDW finanziert. Dear Sir or Madam, Today we would like to inform you about upcoming events to which we cordially invite you. The following events will take place soon: * Presentation of the study: Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen - in Geman (Online event) * Reminder: Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online Event) * Reminder: Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online Event) Presentation of the study: Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen - in Geman (Online event) The Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs (BMDW) invites you and interested colleagues to the Presentation of the study "Perspektiven einer erfolgreichen europäischen Handelspolitik im Kontext geopolitischer Herausforderungen" on May 17, 2021 from 11:30 to 12:30. The study was commissioned by the BMDW and written by a team from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy under the direction of Prof. Dr. Gabriel Felbermayr. Following the study presentation, a high-level panel will discuss the findings and implications for the new EU trade strategy: * Margarete Schramböck (Federal Minister for Digital and Economic Affairs) * Sabine Weyand (Director-General - Directorate-General "Trade" of the European Commission) * Gabriel Felbermayr (President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy) * Moderation: Hanna Kordik (Head "Economist": Die Presse) The event will take place as a Zoom webinar (in German language). Participants can join in the discussion via the chat function. After registration under the link below you will receive your individual join link for the event: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_m-nhwC2mSoGfIL5NdHyOkw Reminder: Invitation to Seminar in International Economics: Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Speaker: Alejandro Cuñat, University of Vienna Time: May 6, 2021, 4 p.m. Registration link: https://wiiw.ac.at/bilateral-trade-imbalances-online-event-e-516.html This is an online event via Zoom. Please register for the dial-in link. The link will be sent shortly before the event. Language: English Description: This presentation is based on a paper<http://www.zymek.eu/papers.html> co-authored with Robert Zymek. Bilateral trade imbalances are determined by aggregate trade imbalances, production and expenditure patterns, and trade barriers. We calibrate a dynamic many-sector trade model to match the recent sectoral trade and production shares of 40 economies and the rest of the world. Through a variance decomposition and counterfactuals, the model allows us to assess the relative importance of these determinants for the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. Large pairwise asymmetries in residual trade "wedges" are needed for the model to match the data. These account for roughly 60% of the variation, with most of the rest due to differences in production and expenditure patterns. Aggregate trade imbalances play a minor role. A counterfactual trade policy which eliminates trade-wedge asymmetries would have sizeable effects on bilateral trade patterns and welfare. However, it would leave aggregate trade balances virtually unchanged. Reminder: Invitation to Seminar in International Economics: Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Speaker: Matt Burke, Bennett Institute for Public Policy and University of East Anglia Time: June 10, 2021, 3 p.m. Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/rising-temperatures-falling-ratings-the-effect-of-climate... This is an online event via Zoom. Please register for the dial-in link. The link will be sent shortly before the event. Language: English Description: The presentation is based on a paper<https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2127.html> co-authored with Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. Enthusiasm for 'greening the financial system' is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world's first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. Under various warming scenarios, we find evidence of climate-induced sovereign downgrades as early as 2030, increasing in intensity and across more countries over the century. We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2oC, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement, and following RCP 2.6 could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings. In contrast, under higher emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 8.5), 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030, with an average reduction of 1.02 notches, rising to 80 sovereigns facing an average downgrade of 2.48 notches by 2100. We calculate the effect of climate-induced sovereign downgrades on the cost of corporate and sovereign debt. Across the sample, climate change could increase the annual interest payments on sovereign debt by US$ 22-33 billion under RCP 2.6, rising to US$ 137-205 billion under RCP 8.5. The We are looking forward to your participation in the events. Kind regards Alexander Hudetz and Birgit Buschbom FIW Project Office It is not our philosophy to send you unwanted e-mails. If you do not wish to receive further e-mails from FIW, please write to the project office<mailto:fiw-pb@fiw.ac.at> with the subject "Unsubscribe". _____________________________________________________ The FIW - Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz and the University of Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw and WSR. FIW is funded by BMBFW and BMDW. [Titel: Logo des FIW - Beschreibung: Das ist das Logo Kompetenzzentrum Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft, das in Kooperation mit dem BMDW die AW-Vorlesungen organisiert.]
