[FIW_Logo_de_en] English version Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, wir möchten Sie über weitere Seminare in International Economics im Frühjahr 2021 informieren. Das FIW bietet gemeinsam mit dem Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw) regelmäßig Vorlesungen in Form eines "Seminars in International Economics" an, zu denen wir Sie herzlich einladen. Folgende Seminare in International Economics finden in Kürze statt: * Reminder: Border Policies and Unauthorized Flows: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Europe (Online event) * Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online Event) * Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online Event) Reminder: Einladung zum Seminar in International Economics: Border Policies and Unauthorized Flows: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Europe (Online event) Border Policies and Unauthorized Flows: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Europe (Online event) Vortragender: Francesco Fasani, Queen Mary University of London Zeit: Donnerstag, 29. April 2021, 16:00 Uhr Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/border-policies-and-unauthorized-flows-evidence-from-the-... Dies ist eine Online-Veranstaltung über Zoom. Bitte registrieren Sie sich für den Einwahllink. Dieser wird Ihnen kurz vor der Veranstaltung zugesandt. Sprache: Englisch Description: This presentation is based on a paper co-authored with T. Frattini. In this paper, we first describe the size, composition and characteristics of the recent unauthorised migration flows through external European Union borders. We then assess the effectiveness of EU border enforcement policies in deterring or diverting migration flows across alternative routes. Our empirical analysis is based on a novel dataset of Frontex records on attempted illegal crossing by quarter, country of origin and route of entry in Europe for the period 2009-2017. These records are matched with a dataset - that we assembled - on the monthly EU budget spent on border enforcement and search and rescue operations on each route of entry. Our empirical analysis is threefold. First, we document the existence of a political cycle in enforcement spending at the external EU borders which is orthogonal to expected ows. Second, we use this result as a first stage to deal with the endogeneity of border policies and retrieve the causal impact of enforcement on unauthorized flows. Third, we analyse the effect of outsourcing border controls to a non-EU transit country (the 2016 EU-Turkey deal) on deterrence and diversion of unauthorized flows. Einladung zum Seminar in International Economics: Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Vortragender: Alejandro Cuñat, University of Vienna Zeit: Donnerstag, 6. Mai 2021, 16:00 Uhr Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/bilateral-trade-imbalances-online-event-e-516.html Dies ist eine Online-Veranstaltung über Zoom. Bitte registrieren Sie sich für den Einwahllink. Dieser wird Ihnen kurz vor der Veranstaltung zugesandt. Sprache: Englisch Description: This presentation is based on a paper<http://www.zymek.eu/papers.html> co-authored with Robert Zymek. Bilateral trade imbalances are determined by aggregate trade imbalances, production and expenditure patterns, and trade barriers. We calibrate a dynamic many-sector trade model to match the recent sectoral trade and production shares of 40 economies and the rest of the world. Through a variance decomposition and counterfactuals, the model allows us to assess the relative importance of these determinants for the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. Large pairwise asymmetries in residual trade "wedges" are needed for the model to match the data. These account for roughly 60% of the variation, with most of the rest due to differences in production and expenditure patterns. Aggregate trade imbalances play a minor role. A counterfactual trade policy which eliminates trade-wedge asymmetries would have sizeable effects on bilateral trade patterns and welfare. However, it would leave aggregate trade balances virtually unchanged. Einladung zum Seminar in International Economics: Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Vortragender: Matt Burke, Bennett Institute for Public Policy and University of East Anglia Zeit: Donnerstag, 10. Juni 2021, 15:00 Uhr Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/rising-temperatures-falling-ratings-the-effect-of-climate... Dies ist eine Online-Veranstaltung über Zoom. Bitte registrieren Sie sich für den Einwahllink. Dieser wird Ihnen kurz vor der Veranstaltung zugesandt. Sprache: Englisch Description: The presentation is based on a paper<https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2127.html> co-authored with Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. Enthusiasm for 'greening the financial system' is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world's first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. Under various warming scenarios, we find evidence of climate-induced sovereign downgrades as early as 2030, increasing in intensity and across more countries over the century. We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2oC, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement, and following RCP 2.6 could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings. In contrast, under higher emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 8.5), 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030, with an average reduction of 1.02 notches, rising to 80 sovereigns facing an average downgrade of 2.48 notches by 2100. We calculate the effect of climate-induced sovereign downgrades on the cost of corporate and sovereign debt. Across the sample, climate change could increase the annual interest payments on sovereign debt by US$ 22-33 billion under RCP 2.6, rising to US$ 137-205 billion under RCP 8.5. The additional cost to corporates is US$ 7.2-12.6 billion under RCP 2.6, and US$ 35.8-62.6 billion under RCP 8.5. Wir freuen uns über Ihre Teilnahme an den Veranstaltungen. Mit freundlichen Grüßen Alexander Hudetz und Birgit Buschbom FIW-Projektbüro Es entspricht nicht unserer Philosophie Ihnen unerwünschte E-Mails zukommen zu lassen. Falls Sie keine weiteren E-Mails vom FIW erhalten möchten, schreiben Sie bitte an das Projektbüro<mailto:fiw-pb@fiw.at> mit dem Betreff "Abmelden". __________________________________ Der Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft (FIW) (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) ist eine Kooperation zwischen der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien (WU), der Universität Wien, der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz und der Universität Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw und WSR. FIW wird von den Bundesministerien BMBFW und BMDW finanziert. Dear Sir or Madam, Today we would like to inform you about further upcoming Seminars in International Economics in spring 2021. Together with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), FIW offers regular lectures in the form of a "Seminar in International Economics", to which we cordially invite you. The following seminars in International Economics will take place in spring 2021: * Reminder: Border Policies and Unauthorized Flows: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Europe (Online event) * Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online Event) * Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online Event) Reminder: Invitation to Seminar in International Economics: Border Policies and Unauthorized Flows: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Europe (Online event) Border Policies and Unauthorized Flows: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Europe (Online event) Speaker: Francesco Fasani, Queen Mary University of London Time: April 29, 2021, 4:00 p.m. Registration link: https://wiiw.ac.at/border-policies-and-unauthorized-flows-evidence-from-the-... This is an online event via Zoom. Please register for the dial-in link. The link will be sent shortly before the event. Language: English Description: This presentation is based on a paper co-authored with T. Frattini. In this paper, we first describe the size, composition and characteristics of the recent unauthorised migration flows through external European Union borders. We then assess the effectiveness of EU border enforcement policies in deterring or diverting migration flows across alternative routes. Our empirical analysis is based on a novel dataset of Frontex records on attempted illegal crossing by quarter, country of origin and route of entry in Europe for the period 2009-2017. These records are matched with a dataset - that we assembled - on the monthly EU budget spent on border enforcement and search and rescue operations on each route of entry. Our empirical analysis is threefold. First, we document the existence of a political cycle in enforcement spending at the external EU borders which is orthogonal to expected ows. Second, we use this result as a first stage to deal with the endogeneity of border policies and retrieve the causal impact of enforcement on unauthorized flows. Third, we analyse the effect of outsourcing border controls to a non-EU transit country (the 2016 EU-Turkey deal) on deterrence and diversion of unauthorized flows. Invitation to Seminar in International Economics: Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Bilateral Trade Imbalances (Online event) Speaker: Alejandro Cuñat, University of Vienna Time: May 6, 2021, 4 p.m. Registration link: https://wiiw.ac.at/bilateral-trade-imbalances-online-event-e-516.html This is an online event via Zoom. Please register for the dial-in link. The link will be sent shortly before the event. Language: English Description: This presentation is based on a paper<http://www.zymek.eu/papers.html> co-authored with Robert Zymek. Bilateral trade imbalances are determined by aggregate trade imbalances, production and expenditure patterns, and trade barriers. We calibrate a dynamic many-sector trade model to match the recent sectoral trade and production shares of 40 economies and the rest of the world. Through a variance decomposition and counterfactuals, the model allows us to assess the relative importance of these determinants for the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. Large pairwise asymmetries in residual trade "wedges" are needed for the model to match the data. These account for roughly 60% of the variation, with most of the rest due to differences in production and expenditure patterns. Aggregate trade imbalances play a minor role. A counterfactual trade policy which eliminates trade-wedge asymmetries would have sizeable effects on bilateral trade patterns and welfare. However, it would leave aggregate trade balances virtually unchanged. Invitation to Seminar in International Economics: Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness (Online event) Speaker: Matt Burke, Bennett Institute for Public Policy and University of East Anglia Time: June 10, 2021, 3 p.m. Registrierungslink: https://wiiw.ac.at/rising-temperatures-falling-ratings-the-effect-of-climate... This is an online event via Zoom. Please register for the dial-in link. The link will be sent shortly before the event. Language: English Description: The presentation is based on a paper<https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2127.html> co-authored with Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. Enthusiasm for 'greening the financial system' is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world's first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. Under various warming scenarios, we find evidence of climate-induced sovereign downgrades as early as 2030, increasing in intensity and across more countries over the century. We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2oC, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement, and following RCP 2.6 could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings. In contrast, under higher emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 8.5), 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030, with an average reduction of 1.02 notches, rising to 80 sovereigns facing an average downgrade of 2.48 notches by 2100. We calculate the effect of climate-induced sovereign downgrades on the cost of corporate and sovereign debt. Across the sample, climate change could increase the annual interest payments on sovereign debt by US$ 22-33 billion under RCP 2.6, rising to US$ 137-205 billion under RCP 8.5. The We are looking forward to your participation in the events. Kind regards Alexander Hudetz and Birgit Buschbom FIW Project Office It is not our philosophy to send you unwanted e-mails. If you do not wish to receive further e-mails from FIW, please write to the project office<mailto:fiw-pb@fiw.ac.at> with the subject "Unsubscribe". _____________________________________________________ The FIW - Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz and the University of Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw and WSR. FIW is funded by BMBFW and BMDW. [Titel: Logo des FIW - Beschreibung: Das ist das Logo Kompetenzzentrum Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft, das in Kooperation mit dem BMDW die AW-Vorlesungen organisiert.]
