Dear Colleague, We cordially invite you to the wiiw-FIW-Seminar in International Economics on Thursday, July 16th, 4 pm wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, lecture hall (ground floor) The Long-Term Economic Impact of Reducing Migration in the UK Katerina Lisenkova (with Mérette M. and Sanchez-Martinez M.) National Institute of Economic and Social Research, UK Abstract This paper uses an OLG-CGE model for the UK to illustrate the long-term effect of migration on the economy. We use the current Conservative Party migration target to reduce net migration "from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands" as an illustration. Achieving this target would require reducing recent net migration numbers by a factor of about 2. We undertake a simulation exercise to compare a baseline scenario, which incorporates the principal 2010-based ONS population projections, with a lower migration scenario, which assumes that net migration is reduced by around 50%. The results show that such a significant reduction in net migration has strong negative effects on the economy. By 2060 the levels of both GDP and GDP per person fall by 11.0% and 2.7% respectively. Moreover, this policy has a significant impact on public finances. To keep the government budget balanced, the effective labour income tax rate has to be increased by 2.2 percentage points in the lower migration scenario. Keywords: UK, migration, OLG, population ageing. JEL Classification: C68, E17, H53, J11, J21. After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks. This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a center of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW). The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit our website for the current version of the programme at: http://wiiw.ac.at/fiw-wiiw-seminars-in-international-economics-es-6.html http://www.fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=748 (Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our homepage http://wiiw.ac.at/events.html after the respective seminars.) Best regards Julia Grübler Organizer -- Michaela Bönisch Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw) The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Rahlgasse 3, A-1060 Wien T: +43 1 533 66 10 - 40 F: +43 1 533 66 10 - 50 boenisch@wiiw.ac.at http://www.wiiw.ac.at/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you do not want to receive further mailings please send an e-mail to boenisch@wiiw.ac.at Falls Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen des wiiw wünschen senden Sie bitte ein E-Mail an boenisch@wiiw.ac.at
