Dear colleagues, May I draw your attention to a SUERF I OeNB workshop: “Equilibrium Real Interest Rates – concepts, current and future drivers: New insights and policy implications”<http://www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop>, which will take place on Thursday, December 7, 2023, as a hybrid event from 08:45 to 15:00 CET. In case you are not able to come, please feel free to forward this e-mail invitation within your network. For registration<https://www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop/registration/>, please use this link<https://www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop/registration/>. Kind regards, Ernest Gnan ______________________________________________________________ Prof Dr Ernest Gnan Secretary General, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum Honorary Economic Advisor to the OeNB Governor ernest.gnan@oenb.at<mailto:ernest.gnan@oenb.at> +43 664 4333384 • @dr_gnan<https://twitter.com/dr_gnan> • LinkedIn<https://www.linkedin.com/in/ernest-gnan-8a6957ab/> [cid:image001.png@01D962E9.AE1FEC50] Invitation We have the pleasure of inviting you to the SUERF I OeNB Workshop entitled “Equilibrium Real Interest Rates – concepts, current and future drivers: New insights and policy implications”<https://www.suerf.org/r*>, which the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) and SUERF will host as a hybrid event on Thursday, 7 December 2023. Motivation A secular decline in r* was one of the key drivers of the strategy reviews carried out by the ECB and the FED in the years 2019-2021. While we have seen an increase in r* after the multiple shocks that started with the Covid crisis, it is not clear whether the secular decline in r* may have stopped or reversed or whether this increase is only temporary. This is an important question in the short-term because it will give an indication of how much central banks have to tighten to reign on inflation. In the medium and long-term it is important because it will influence the type of instruments that central banks should have in their toolkits if we were again approaching the effective lower bound on interest rates. This workshop calls for a broader view of “equilibrium interest rate”. It explores various concepts of the natural rate along different dimensions, such as time (short versus long-run horizon, short-term versus long-term rates) or sectoral (public debt vs. private capital). Moreover, it addresses the novel concept of the financial (in)stability rate of interest. In addition to a comparative and careful juxtaposition and appraisal of the various concepts, the workshop seeks to answer the following questions: (1) What are past and future trends in the level of these various “equilibrium rates”? (2) Which “equilibrium rate of interest” may be most informative for which policy purpose? This workshop brings together the latest theoretical and empirical research on this topic, which is central for both monetary policy and longer-term structural policies. Presentations aim to be accessible to audiences active in the policy, advisory and investment community, to allow immediate insights for policy and investment decisions. Agenda I Thursday, 7 December 2023 08:45 Welcome and opening remarks Living with R* or Working on R* Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank 09:00 Session 1: Conceptual challenges: which r* to look at for what purpose? Keynote lecture: The future long-run level of interest rates Ricardo Reis, A. W. Phillips Professor of Economics, LSE I SUERF Fellow Discussants Stefano Neri, Head, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Directorate, Banca d’Italia I SUERF Adrian Penalver, Deputy Director, Monetary and Financial Studies Directorate, Banque de France 10:30 Break 11:00 Session 2: Endogeneity of r* to monetary policy Chair: Deniz Igan, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis, BIS I SUERF Vice-President The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Director , Monetary Policy Strategy Office, Bank of Thailand Co-author: Fabian Winkler, Federal Reserve Board Star struck: Monetary Policy and the Neutral Real Rate Garo Garabedian, Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Division, Central Bank of Ireland The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R** Gianluca Benigno, Professor of Economics, University of Lausanne co-authors: Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro (Fed NY), Albert Queralto (Fed Washington) 12:45 Lunch 13:30 Session 3: The long view: looking back and ahead and implications for monetary policy Chair: Ernest Gnan, Secretary General, SUERF The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest Francesco Paolo Mongelli, Senior Adviser, DG Monetary Policy, ECB I Honorary Professor, Goethe University Frankfurt co-authors: Jan Willem van den End, De Nederlandsche Bank, Wolfgang Pointner, OeNB Long-run trends in long-maturity real rates 1311-2021 Paul Schmelzing, Assistant Prof. of Finance, Boston College I Research Fellow, Hoover Institution Stanford co-authors: Kenneth S. Rogoff (Harvard University), Barbara Rossi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) Housing and the secular decline in real interest rates Markus Knell, Senior Expert, Oesterreichische Nationalbank Secular drivers of the natural rate of interest: Looking ahead Josef Platzer, Economist, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Co-author: Marcel Peruffo (IMF) 15:15 End REGISTRATION Registrations are handled by the OeNB event management: www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop<http://www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop> To register, please use the following link<https://www.oenb-events.at/en/suerf-oenb-workshop/registration/>. You will receive an e-mail with your personal registration link to the e-mail address you entered, with which you can complete the registration process. www.oenb-events.at/suerf-oenb-workshop<http://www.oenb-events.at/suerf-oenb-workshop> I www.suerf.org/r*<http://www.suerf.org/r*> Venue: Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Veranstaltungssaal, Ground Floor I online via Webex Date: Thursday, 7 December 2023 | Start: 08:45 AM | End: 03:00 PM Feel free to share this invitation with colleagues in your institution who might be interested to attend! We look forward to having you join us at the SUERF | OeNB Workshop Yours sincerely, SUERF Secretariat SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum c/o OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna<https://maps.google.com/?q=Otto-Wagner-Platz+3,+A-1090+Vienna&entry=gmail&source=g> Tel: +43 1 40420 7216<tel:+431404207216> - E-mail: suerf@oenb.at<mailto:suerf@oenb.at>. Privacy Policy<https://www.suerf.org/privacy-policy> I Terms and Conditions<https://www.suerf.org/terms-and-conditions>. [Suerf On Twitter] <https://twitter.com/suerf_org> [Suerf On LinkedIn] <https://www.linkedin.com/company/suerf---the-european-money-&-finance-forum> Diese E-Mail kann vertrauliche Informationen enthalten und irrtümlich an Sie gelangt sein. In diesem Fall informieren Sie bitte sofort die Absenderin bzw. den Absender und vernichten Sie diese E-Mail. Das unerlaubte Kopieren sowie die unbefugte Weitergabe dieser Mail oder von Teilen dieser Mail sind nicht gestattet. Informationen gemäß DSGVO zur Verarbeitung personenbezogener Daten durch die OeNB finden Sie unter www.oenb.at/datenschutz<https://www.oenb.at/datenschutz>.
