Dear colleague, May I draw your attention to a SUERF • Banco de España • Bank of Finland • Bank of Italy • ECB online workshop on “Measuring economic slack or shortages: new methods and ways forward”<https://www.suerf.org/EconomicSlack>, which will take place on Monday, 27 March, from 14:00 to 17:30 CET. In case you are not able to attend or want further colleagues to also listen in, please feel free to forward this e-mail invitation. For registration, please use this link<https://www.suerf.org/registration/10577/economicslack>. Kind regards Ernest Gnan ________________________________________________ Prof Dr Ernest Gnan Secretary General, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum Honorary Economic Advisor to the OeNB Governor ernest.gnan@oenb.at<mailto:ernest.gnan@oenb.at> +43 664 4333384 • @dr_gnan<https://twitter.com/dr_gnan> • LinkedIn<https://www.linkedin.com/in/ernest-gnan-8a6957ab/> • www.suerf.org<http://www.suerf.org/> [cid:image003.png@01D95042.719B0A30]<https://www.suerf.org/EconomicSlack> INVITATION: Noeg We are pleased to announce that registration is now open for the forthcoming SUERF • Banco de España • Bank of Finland • Bank of Italy • ECB workshop on “Measuring economic slack or shortages: new methods and ways forward”<https://www.suerf.org/EconomicSlack> , to be held virtually on Monday, 27 March 2023. Motivation The recent post-covid, geopolitical and energy crisis period has been characterized by conflicting indicators on whether the economy is below, at or above its potential. This is not least due to the multiplicity of large shocks – supply and demand, external and domestic, temporary or lasting, global, idiosyncratic and sectoral – the heightened uncertainty that surrounds them and their transmission to economies. This complex setting is likely to continue, with climate change and the energy transition as well as secular shifts in global value chains looming. The issue is central due to its important role for adequate monetary, fiscal, and structural policies as well as for inflation forecasting. This workshop takes stock of major institutions’ theoretical and empirical approaches to measure potential output, labor market conditions and other indicators developed to gauge price pressures. The impact of sectoral shifts and various forms of market frictions to economic slack and shortages will be featured prominently. CET Agenda 14:00 Welcome: Ernest Gnan, SUERF Opening remarks: Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland Session 1: Longer-term implications of supply disruptions, sectoral change and scarring for potential output Chair: Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d ‘Italia From bottlenecks to supply-side headwinds Deniz Igan, BIS I SUERF The impact of the COVID-19 shock on euro area potential output: a sectoral approach Katalin Bodnar, ECB The scarring effects of deep contractions David Aikman, King’s College London 15:20 Virtual Break 15:25 Session 2: Measuring the output gap in times of large shocks – tools and recent advances Chair: Eva Ortega, Banco de España Title - tbc Fabio Canova, BI Norwegian Business School State of current work in the Eurosystem David Sondermann, ECB A business cycle heatmap for the EU, the Eurozone and 27 member countries Matthias Strifler and Arto Kokkinen, National Audit Office of Finland Robust real time OG estimates Christian Ochsner, German Council of Economic Experts Evaluating estimates of potential output and output gaps Bela Szörfi, ECB 17:25 Closing remarks: Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB 17:30 End To participate, please register by using the following LINK<https://www.suerf.org/registration/10577/economicslack>. Feel free to share this invitation with colleagues who might be interested to attend! On behalf of the program committee and the co-organizing institutions, We look forward to your participation! www.suerf.org/EconomicSlack<http://www.suerf.org/EconomicSlack> Program Committee Matthieu Darracq Paries, ECB, Ernest Gnan, SUERF, Juha Kilponen, Bank of Finland, Alessandro Notarpietro, Banca d ‘Italia, and Eva Ortega, Banco de España ________________________________ SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum c/o OeNB, Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna<https://maps.google.com/?q=Otto-Wagner-Platz+3,+A-1090+Vienna&entry=gmail&source=g> Tel: +43 1 40420 7216<tel:+431404207216> - E-mail: suerf@oenb.at<mailto:suerf@oenb.at>. [Suerf On Twitter] <https://twitter.com/suerf_org> [Suerf On LinkedIn] <https://www.linkedin.com/company/suerf---the-european-money-&-finance-forum> Diese E-Mail kann vertrauliche Informationen enthalten und irrtümlich an Sie gelangt sein. In diesem Fall informieren Sie bitte sofort die Absenderin bzw. den Absender und vernichten Sie diese E-Mail. Das unerlaubte Kopieren sowie die unbefugte Weitergabe dieser Mail oder von Teilen dieser Mail sind nicht gestattet. Informationen gemäß DSGVO zur Verarbeitung personenbezogener Daten durch die OeNB finden Sie unter www.oenb.at/datenschutz<https://www.oenb.at/datenschutz>.
