- NOeG-l - Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien

REMINDER: FIW-wiiw Seminars in International Economics, 14 November 2017
by wiiw Events (noeg) 09 Nov '17

09 Nov '17

View this email in your browser [https://wiiw.ac.at/files/mailings/event-201711090924-en.html] _in cooperation with _ [Research Centre International Economics (FIW)] [http://fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=1&L=3] Dear colleague, we cordially invite you to the following event: THE HETEROGENEOUS IMPACT OF BREXIT: EARLY INDICATIONS FROM THE FTSE RONALD B. DAVIES University College Dublin TUESDAY, 14 NOVEMBER 2017, 11:00 AM (11:00 CET) wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna FIW-wiiw Seminars in International Economics [https://wiiw.ac.at/es-6.html] The UK's decision to leave the EU is surrounded by several studies simulating its potential effects. We take an alternative approach by examining how news of Brexit affected expectations as embodied in stock returns using a two-part estimation process. While most firms' prices fell following news of the referendum's result, there was considerable heterogeneity in their relative changes. We show that this heterogeneity can be explained by the firm's global value chain, with heavily European firms doing relatively worse. For firms with few imported intermediates, this was partially offset by a greater Sterling depreciation. These changes were primarily in the first two days and highly persistent. Understanding these movements gives a better understanding of Brexit's potential effects. ...more [https://wiiw.ac.at/e-362.html] WE KINDLY ASK YOU TO REGISTER [https://wiiw.ac.at/bc-e-er-362.html] for the event. Participation is free of charge. Best regards, Julia Grübler [https://wiiw.ac.at/julia-gruebler-s-866.html] _Organiser_ Robert Stehrer [https://wiiw.ac.at/robert-stehrer-s-16.html] _Scientific Director_ wiiw The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, Austria wiiw(a)wiiw.ac.at, wiiw.ac.at [https://wiiw.ac.at] T: +43 1 533 66 10 [tel:+4315336610] [http://www.facebook.com/wiiw.economic.studies] [http://www.twitter.com/wiiw_news] [http://www.linkedin.com/company/vienna-institute-for-international-economic…] [http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyNuSfsgzgBsIf7AaH8Vk-Q] [https://wiiw.ac.at/rss.php] Copyright ©2017 wiiw, all rights reserved.

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Reminder: Invitation: Vienna Joint Economics Seminar (Nov 9): Harris Dellas (U Bern)
by IHS Economics 08 Nov '17

08 Nov '17

[cid:image002.png@01CEBF6B.D0B28790] VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR INVITATION The University of Vienna and the Institute for Advanced Studies cordially invite you to the following Vienna Joint Economics Seminar <http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Papers/20130226_Paper_Zimme…> Thursday, November 9, 2017 University of Vienna, Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Vienna, VGSE seminar room, 3rd floor 1:15 pm Harris Dellas<http://www.harrisdellas.net/> University of Bern Fiscal Policy with an Informal Sector Abstract: Macroeconomic models that omit the shadow economy systematically mis-forecast and mis-measure the effect of fiscal --in particular tax-- policy on economic activity and tax revenue. We add an informal sector to the Bank of Greece DSGE model and use the actual package of fiscal consolidation implemented in Greece over the period 2010--2015 to evaluate the role of the black economy. In the data, official Greek GDP declined by about 26%, budget deficits proved larger and more persistent and tax rates increased by much more and tax revenue by much less than predicted. The model replicates the official output decline but implies a true output decline that is less than two thirds of that in recorded output. The discrepancy is even more pronounced for employment. The model also implies that the size of fiscal adjustment and the drop in economic activity could have been considerably milder had the informal sector been curtailed (it instead increased by about 50%). The underground economy seems to have been a key factor in Greece's failure to achieve orderly debt consolidation while avoiding economic depression. We are looking forward to seeing you! Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria Tel.: +43 1 599 91 250 e-Mail: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at> http://www.ihs.ac.at LINKS DIRECTIONS TO<https://www.google.com/maps?q=Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz+1,+1090+Vienna+%28VGS…> UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA on Google maps<https://www.google.com/maps?q=Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz+1,+1090+Vienna+%28VGS…> VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40grou…> ECONOMICS SEMINARS <https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> IN VIENNA<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> [cid:image003.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://ihs.ac.at/> [cid:image004.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://econ.univie.ac.at/home/> Diese Zusendung erfolgt entsprechend den Bestimmungen des TKG 247107. Sollten Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen wuenschen, senden Sie uns bitte eine kurze Mitteilung an: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. If you do not want to receive our mailings please send an e-mail to: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. Also sent to noeg-l(a)wu.ac.at<mailto:noeg-l@wu.ac.at> (https://mailman.wu.ac.at/mailman/listinfo/noeg-l)

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REMINDER wiiw Webinar: CESEE forecast 2017-2019 - 09 November 2017
by wiiw Events (noeg) 08 Nov '17

08 Nov '17

View this email in your browser [https://wiiw.ac.at/files/mailings/webinar-201711081307-en.html] INVITATION TO WEBINAR Presentation of wiiws latest growth forecast for 22 countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe WIIW AUTUMN FORECAST 2017 CESEE IN 2017-2019: BACK ON TRACK TO CONVERGENCE Thursday, 9th November 2017, 4 pm CET Duration: 1 hour LINK TO THE WEBINAR: https://go.myownconference.com/x/Z2s14847F69 [https://go.myownconference.com/x/Z2s14847F69] We kindly ask you to register for the webinar [https://wiiw.ac.at/er-367.html] ATTENTION - THIS IS AN ONLINE EVENT! PARTICIPATION IS FREE OF CHARGE. Presenter: Peter Havlik [https://wiiw.ac.at/peter-havlik-s-5.html] Moderator: Julia Grübler [https://wiiw.ac.at/julia-gruebler-s-866.html] * GDP forecasts for 2017 were revised upwards for all Central and East European EU Member States (EU-CEE); * Farther east, especially in Russia, but also in the Western Balkans, the post-crisis recovery has been much weaker; * Private consumption is the main growth driver, underpinned by rising wages and household incomes; * Nonetheless, CESEE labour cost competitiveness is not yet endangered; * Gradually, along with expanding private consumption, investments have also gained strength and have increasingly emerged as a driver of growth; * Trade balances have improved, and many EU-CEE countries (as well as Russia) also report current account surpluses; * Growth is thus becoming broader-based, more robust and probably also more sustainable; * Improvements in labour markets are spectacular; rising employment levels are mirrored by declining unemployment; * Simultaneously, emerging labour shortages are acting as a potential constraint on future growth; * Convergence in terms of per capita GDP levels in CESEE is a long-term process; by 2026, no country in the region will have caught up with the average EU-28 level; * Despite sustained criticism since its inception, the euro may yet survive and attract new members in the EU-CEE; * Many CESEE sovereigns are not in a markedly better shape to deal with a sharp rise in debt yields than they were 10 years ago; and in some cases they are in a worse position. The following questions will be addressed in the webinar: * How is the economic recovery in CESEE proceeding and what are the main growth drivers? * Can the region converge to Western European income levels any time soon? * Should additional countries from EU-CEE join the euro? * How well are countries in the region positioned to deal with higher yields on hard currency sovereign debt? PETER HAVLIK is Senior Economist at wiiw. His main research areas cover inter alia foreign trade, competitiveness, EU integration, EU-Russian relations and analysis and forecasts of macroeconomic developments in Russia. RICHARD GRIEVESON is Economist at wiiw. His main area of research is CESEE country analysis and economic forecasting, with a particular focus on Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. wiiw The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, Austria wiiw(a)wiiw.ac.at, wiiw.ac.at [https://wiiw.ac.at] T: +43 1 533 66 10 [tel:+4315336610] [http://www.facebook.com/wiiw.economic.studies] [http://www.twitter.com/wiiw_news] [http://www.linkedin.com/company/vienna-institute-for-international-economic…] [http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyNuSfsgzgBsIf7AaH8Vk-Q] [https://wiiw.ac.at/rss.php] Copyright ©2017 wiiw, all rights reserved.

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Veranstaltung:"Für eine aktive Nachbarschaftspolitik Europas - 22.11.2017"
by Karl Aiginger: Querdenkerplattform: Wien - Europa 07 Nov '17

07 Nov '17

Policy Crossover Center: Vienna - Europe Querdenkerplattform: Wien - Europa Einladung Für eine aktive Nachbarschaftspolitik Europas Dynamik stärken, Fluchtursachen eliminieren Mittwoch, 22. November 2017, 18.00 Uhr Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) / Kassensaal (Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Wien) Die Nachbarländer Europas bieten als eine Zone potentiell hoher Dynamik menschliche Ressourcen, kulturelle Vielfalt und erneuerbare Energien. Politische Umbrüche und Konflikte behindern allerdings ihre Entfaltung und führen zu Flüchtlingsströmen, ethnischen Konflikten und auch zu neuen Hegemonialansprüchen Chinas, Russlands und der Türkei. Populismus und Renationalisierungstendenzen stellen das Europäische Projekt in Frage. Eine aktive Nachbarschaftspolitik Europas kann die Nachbarn – von Eurasien über den Schwarzmeerraum, den Nahen und Mittleren Osten und Afrika – zu Partnern machen. Sie soll gleichzeitig den Aufbau eigenständiger Strukturen unterstützen sowie Jugend, Frauen und NGO´s stärker in den Reformprozess einbeziehen. Dies würde auch die Position Europas in der Globalisierung stärken. Dafür muss internationales Kapital angeworben, Investitionen und Technologietransfer gestärkt und die kulturellen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen ausgebaut werden. Fehler der bisherigen Entwicklungshilfe müssen dabei vermieden werden. Die Querdenkerplattform entwickelt interdisziplinär eine Nachbarschaftspolitik, die diesen neuen Anforderungen entspricht. Die Vorschläge können für den EU-Afrika-Gipfel Ende November und die weitere Europäische Politik, insbesondere der Österreichischen EU-Ratspräsidentschaft 2018, eine Grundlage bieten. Positive Erfahrungen Österreichs mit der Osterweiterung der EU, aber auch bei alternativen Energien, Biotechnologie und in der Kommunikation mit anderen Kulturen sollen genutzt werden. ProgrammBegrüßung:Helene Schuberth(OeNB) Studienpräsentation: Karl Aiginger(Querdenkerplattform: Wien-Europa, WU- Wien) Kommentar: Wolfgang Petritsch(Präsident der Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation) Videobotschaft: Johannes Hahn(EU-Kommissar für Europäische Nachbarschaftspolitik) Podiumsdiskussion unter der Moderation vonRoland Adrowitzer(ORF): Karl Aiginger Konstantin Huber(BMF Internationale Finanzinstitutionen, Exekutivdirektor Weltbank) Christoph Kuhn(Europäische Investitionsbank bzw. Vertretung EIB – tba) Wolfgang Petritsch Barbara Weghofer(Peace Building Advisor, Kenya) Programm zum Download (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5780d6f1579fb375af56974a/t/5a00b8f8e…) Es wird um Anmeldung bis Freitag 17. November 2017an info(a)querdenkereuropa.at (mailto:info@querdenkereuropa.at) gebeten! www.querdenkereuropa.at (http://www.querdenkereuropa.at) Wenn Sie keine Emails mehr von uns erhalten wollen, schreiben Sie bitte an info(a)querdenkereuropa.at

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WU Economic Research Seminar 15.11.2017, Jörn Kleinert (Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz)
by Oberhofer, Harald 06 Nov '17

06 Nov '17

Dear colleagues, The Department of Economics cordially invites you to the WU Economic Research Seminar (Department Seminar) on Wednesday, November 15, with Jörn Kleinert (Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz) on "A discrete choice approach to labor market matching" Abstract: In this paper we model labor market matching, i.e. a contract between workers and firms, as a two-sided multinomial discrete choice of workers and firms. Heterogeneous workers choose to apply to firms which correspond the most to their abilities, education, and wage expectation. On the other side of the labor market, heterogeneous firms choose potential employees from all received applications by criteria such as occupation or work experience. We argue that this approach is better suited to explain labor market search-mismatch than random search and matching models. We offer an European perspective to labor market matching as wages are set by labor unions rather than by individual wage bargaining. Place and time: Wednesday, November 15, 4.30 - 6.00 p.m., Campus WU, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, building D4, 2nd floor, Department meeting room 2.008 With best regards, Harald Oberhofer --- Univ.-Prof. Dr. Harald Oberhofer Institute for International Economics WU Vienna University of Economics and Business Phone: +43/1/31336-4984 Fax: +43/1/31336-4984 Email: harald.oberhofer(a)wu.ac.at<mailto:harald.oberhofer@wu.ac.at> Webpage: https://www.wu.ac.at/ie/mitarbeiter/harald-oberhofer/ Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) Phone: +43/1/7982601-468 Fax: +43/1/7989386 Email: harald.oberhofer(a)wifo.ac.at<mailto:harald.oberhofer@wifo.ac.at> Webpage: http://www.wifo.ac.at/harald_oberhofer -- Harald Oberhofer Professor of Economics Vienna University of Economics and Business Welthandelsplatz 1 A-1020 Vienna, Austria phone +43/1/31336-4984 fax +43/1/31336-4984 email harald.oberhofer(a)wu.ac.at<mailto:harald.oberhofer@wu.ac.at> webpage http://www.wu.ac.at/ie/mitarbeiter/harald-oberhofer/ Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) Arsenal Object 20 A-1030 Vienna, Austria phone +43/1/7982601-468 fax +43/1/7989386 email harald.oberhofer(a)wifo.ac.at<mailto:harald.oberhofer@wifo.ac.at> webpage http://www.wifo.ac.at/harald_oberhofer

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WIFO-Extern: Räumliche Herausforderungen der Energie- und Ressourcenwende
by veranstaltungen＠wifo.ac.at 03 Nov '17

03 Nov '17

Um die graphische Version (HTML) dieses E-Mails zu sehen, klicken Sie auf den folgenden Link, oder kopieren Sie ihn in Ihren Browser: < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/w.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&mid=75c26ebe > Einladung: WIFO-Extern zum Thema "Räumliche Herausforderungen der Energie- und Ressourcenwende" ------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------- Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, das WIFO lädt Sie herzlich zum nächsten Termin der Vortragsreihe WIFO-Extern ein: Donnerstag, 16. November 2017, 13:15 Uhr WIFO, Kleiner Sitzungssaal Gernot Stöglehner (BOKU Wien) "Räumliche Herausforderungen der Energie- und Ressourcenwende" Abstract: Die Energie- und Ressourcenwende wird üblicherweise nicht als Aufgabe der Raumplanung wahrgenommen. Ein Forschungsfeld des Instituts für Raumplanung, Umweltplanung und Bodenordnung (IRUB) ist die Identifizierung der räumlichen Aspekte der Energie- und Ressourcenwende hin zu einer erneuerbaren Energie- und Rohstoffversorgung. Der gegenständliche Beitrag greift auf, welche Systemzusammenhänge zwischen Energie- und Ressourcenwende und Raum bestehen, welche Herausforderungen und Chancen für die Raumentwicklung in urbanen, suburbanen und ländlichen Räumen bestehen, welche umweltbezogenen und sozioökonomischen Wirkungen zu erwarten sind und welche Steuerungsansätze in der Raumplanung verfolgt werden können. Bei Interesse am Besuch dieses Vortrages schicken Sie bitte (bis einen Tag vor der Veranstaltung) eine formlose Anmeldung an veranstaltungen(a)wifo.ac.at < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z73 > , um uns die Abschätzung des Raumbedarfs zu erleichtern. Um diesen Vortrag in Ihren Kalender zu importieren, klicken Sie bitte hier < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z70&mid=75c2… > . Wir würden uns freuen, Sie zu diesem Vortrag am WIFO begrüßen zu dürfen! Christian Glocker WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Arsenal, Objekt 20 1030 Wien Tel.: +43 (1) 798 26 01-303 Fax: +43 (1) 798 93 86 Web: http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z72 E-Mail: Christian.Glocker(a)wifo.ac.at < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z71 > --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © 2016 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 1030 Wien, Arsenal, Objekt 20 Impressum < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z76 > | AGB < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z75 > | Datenschutzerklärung < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z78 > Tel.: +43 (0) 1 798 26 01-0 Fax: + 43 (0) 1 798 93 86 E-Mail: veranstaltungen(a)wifo.ac.at < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&link=7Z77 > ------------------------------------------------------------- Persönliche Daten ändern: < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&sl=1ng&mid=75c26ebe > ------------------------------------------------------------- Weiterleiten: < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&sl=1nh&mid=75c26ebe > ------------------------------------------------------------- Newsletter abbestellen: < http://newsletter.wifo.ac.at/sys/r.aspx?sub=B7tKf_29HJJI&sl=1nf&mid=75c26ebe > -------------------------------------------------------------

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REMINDER: Hanns Abele Memorial Lecture
by Berger, Cornelia 02 Nov '17

02 Nov '17

Liebe Kolleginnen und Kollegen, ich möchte Sie gerne zur Hanns Abele Memorial Lecture einladen, die am 10. November 2017 ab 14 Uhr im Festsaal 2 (Library Center) der WU Wien stattfinden wird. Die Memorial Lecture hält Michael Bordo (Rutgers University). Alle Details finden Sie im angehängten Programm oder unter https://www.wu.ac.at/vw5/aktuelles/. Mit besten Grüßen, Ulrich Berger -- Univ.Prof. Dr.Dr. Ulrich Berger Institute for Analytical Economics WU Vienna, Department of Economics https://www.wu.ac.at/vw5/mitarbeiter/ulrich-berger/

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Stellen-Ausschreibung Universität Innsbruck
by Price-Placzek, Maria 02 Nov '17

02 Nov '17

Sehr geehrte Kolleg/inn/en, am Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie-, politik und -geschichte) der Universität Innsbruck ist mit ehest möglichem Beginn eine Stelle für einen Universitätsassistenten/eine Universitätsassistentin prae- doc für die Dauer von 4 Jahren zu besetzen. Die Bewerbungsfrist endet am 23. November 2017. Details zur Ausschreibung finden Sie in der Beilage sowie unter https://orawww.uibk.ac.at/public/karriereportal.details?asg_id_in=9606 Mit freundlichen Grüßen Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie,-politik und - geschichte Fakultät f. Volkswirtschaft und Statistik Tel.: +43-(0)512-507-71003 Fax: +43-(0)512-507- 71199 [Beschreibung: uni-ibk] Universität Innsbruck Universitätsstrasse 15a 6020 Innsbruck Maria Price-Placzek, Institutsreferentin Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie,-politik und - geschichte Fakultät f. Volkswirtschaft und Statistik Tel.: +43-(0)512-507-71003 Fax: +43-(0)512-507- 71199 [Beschreibung: uni-ibk] Universität Innsbruck Universitätsstrasse 15a 6020 Innsbruck

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INVITATION: FIW-wiiw Seminars in International Economics, 14 November 2017
by wiiw Events (noeg) 31 Oct '17

31 Oct '17

View this email in your browser [https://wiiw.ac.at/files/mailings/event-201710311556-en.html] _in cooperation with _ [Research Centre International Economics (FIW)] [http://fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=1&L=3] Dear colleague, we cordially invite you to the following event: THE HETEROGENEOUS IMPACT OF BREXIT: EARLY INDICATIONS FROM THE FTSE RONALD B. DAVIES University College Dublin TUESDAY, 14 NOVEMBER 2017, 11:00 AM (11:00 CET) wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna FIW-wiiw Seminars in International Economics [https://wiiw.ac.at/es-6.html] The UK's decision to leave the EU is surrounded by several studies simulating its potential effects. We take an alternative approach by examining how news of Brexit affected expectations as embodied in stock returns using a two-part estimation process. While most firms' prices fell following news of the referendum's result, there was considerable heterogeneity in their relative changes. We show that this heterogeneity can be explained by the firm's global value chain, with heavily European firms doing relatively worse. For firms with few imported intermediates, this was partially offset by a greater Sterling depreciation. These changes were primarily in the first two days and highly persistent. Understanding these movements gives a better understanding of Brexit's potential effects. ...more [https://wiiw.ac.at/e-362.html] WE KINDLY ASK YOU TO REGISTER [https://wiiw.ac.at/bc-e-er-362.html] for the event. Participation is free of charge. Best regards, Julia Grübler [https://wiiw.ac.at/julia-gruebler-s-866.html] _Organiser_ Robert Stehrer [https://wiiw.ac.at/robert-stehrer-s-16.html] _Scientific Director_ wiiw The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, Austria wiiw(a)wiiw.ac.at, wiiw.ac.at [https://wiiw.ac.at] T: +43 1 533 66 10 [tel:+4315336610] [http://www.facebook.com/wiiw.economic.studies] [http://www.twitter.com/wiiw_news] [http://www.linkedin.com/company/vienna-institute-for-international-economic…] [http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyNuSfsgzgBsIf7AaH8Vk-Q] [https://wiiw.ac.at/rss.php] Copyright ©2017 wiiw, all rights reserved.

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Invitation: Vienna Joint Economics Seminar (Nov 9): Harris Dellas (U Bern)
by IHS Economics 31 Oct '17

31 Oct '17

[cid:image002.png@01CEBF6B.D0B28790] VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR INVITATION The University of Vienna and the Institute for Advanced Studies cordially invite you to the following Vienna Joint Economics Seminar <http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Papers/20130226_Paper_Zimme…> Thursday, November 9, 2017 University of Vienna, Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Vienna, VGSE seminar room, 3rd floor 1:15 pm Harris Dellas<http://www.harrisdellas.net/> University of Bern Fiscal Policy with an Informal Sector Abstract: Macroeconomic models that omit the shadow economy systematically mis-forecast and mis-measure the effect of fiscal --in particular tax-- policy on economic activity and tax revenue. We add an informal sector to the Bank of Greece DSGE model and use the actual package of fiscal consolidation implemented in Greece over the period 2010--2015 to evaluate the role of the black economy. In the data, official Greek GDP declined by about 26%, budget deficits proved larger and more persistent and tax rates increased by much more and tax revenue by much less than predicted. The model replicates the official output decline but implies a true output decline that is less than two thirds of that in recorded output. The discrepancy is even more pronounced for employment. The model also implies that the size of fiscal adjustment and the drop in economic activity could have been considerably milder had the informal sector been curtailed (it instead increased by about 50%). The underground economy seems to have been a key factor in Greece's failure to achieve orderly debt consolidation while avoiding economic depression. We are looking forward to seeing you! Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria Tel.: +43 1 599 91 250 e-Mail: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at> http://www.ihs.ac.at LINKS DIRECTIONS TO<https://www.google.com/maps?q=Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz+1,+1090+Vienna+%28VGS…> UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA on Google maps<https://www.google.com/maps?q=Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz+1,+1090+Vienna+%28VGS…> VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40grou…> ECONOMICS SEMINARS <https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> IN VIENNA<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> [cid:image003.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://ihs.ac.at/> [cid:image004.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://econ.univie.ac.at/home/> Diese Zusendung erfolgt entsprechend den Bestimmungen des TKG 247107. Sollten Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen wuenschen, senden Sie uns bitte eine kurze Mitteilung an: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. If you do not want to receive our mailings please send an e-mail to: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. Also sent to noeg-l(a)wu.ac.at<mailto:noeg-l@wu.ac.at> (https://mailman.wu.ac.at/mailman/listinfo/noeg-l)

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