- NOeG-l - Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien

FIW_News: Kommende Veranstaltungen im Juni
by fiw-pb 30 May '17

30 May '17

[FIW_Logo_de_en] Please click here for the English version Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, wir freuen uns, Sie über die neuesten Entwicklungen des FIW-Projekts informieren zu dürfen. Dieses Mal mit folgendem Inhalt: · Einladung zur 24. AW-Vorlesung zum Thema "Die digitale Evolution" · Seminar International Economics zum Thema "Vertical and Horizontal Dynamics in Export Unit Values" Einladung zur 24. AW-Vorlesung zum Thema "Die digitale Evolution" E I N L A D U N G 24. AW-Vorlesung Dienstag, 13. Juni 2017 Mag. Dr. Wolfgang Schwarzbauer "Die Digitale Evolution" Begrüßung: Dr. Manfred Schekulin (BMWFW) Kommentare: Mag. Julia Bock-Schappelwein (WIFO) Diskussionsleitung: Dr. Manfred Schekulin (BMWFW) Literatur: FIW-Policy Brief Nr. 34 <http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/34_FIW…> Zeit: 9:15 Uhr (pünktlich) bis 10:30 Uhr Ort: Wirtschaftsministerium, Stubenring 1, 1010 Wien, 5. Stock, Pressezentrum AW-Vorlesungen ist eine Veranstaltungsreihe, bei der politikrelevante aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse aus dem Bereich internationale Wirtschaft praxisnah präsentiert und diskutiert werden. Für Kaffee ist gesorgt .... Anmeldung erforderlich unter: http://www.fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=1020 FIW-wiiw Seminar in International Economics am 12.6.2017 Montag, 12.Juni 2017, 16:30 Uhr wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Wien Vertical and Horizontal Dynamics in Export Unit Values" Konstantin Wacker University of Mainz (JGU), Germany The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Jan Trenczek (University of Mainz). In this paper, we look at patterns of vertical ('within-product') vs. horizontal ('between' products) export specialisation using unit values on the 6-digit level. We start by documenting widespread convergence in products' unit values as a proxy for export quality. The robustness of this result raises the question why countries do not converge in income levels. We then document that products usually exported by developing countries have shorter quality ladders. This limits the scope for vertical specialization and catch-up, and suggests that vertical specialization can only be one aspect of countries' upgrading strategy that has to be complemented by horizontal upgrading across goods and sectors. Against this background, we analyse countries' vertical vs. horizontal specialization dynamics from the mid-1990s until 2007. Our main contribution in this regard is a methodological decomposition of countries' aggregate export unit values into vertical upgrading and horizontal sector dynamics, reflecting that countries can either upgrade each product in their export portfolio, or they can increasingly move towards sectors with higher unit value perspectives. We then apply this decomposition to trends in aggregate unit values of 154 countries. Although both dimensions are important in countries' dynamic export pattern, the latter seems to be quantitatively dominating, with entry and exit of products playing an important role as well. Keywords: Unit value, convergence, structural change in exports. JEL Codes: F14, F43. We kindly ask you to [undefined] register<https://wiiw.ac.at/vertical-and-horizontal-dynamics-in-export-unit-values-e…> for the event. Participation is free of charge. After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks. This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a center of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW). The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw<http://wiiw.ac.at/fiw-wiiw-seminars-in-international-economics-es-6.html> or FIW<http://www.fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=748> website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage<http://wiiw.ac.at/events.html> after the respective seminars. Mit freundlichen Grüßen, Alexander Hudetz FIW - Projektbüro Es entspricht nicht unserer Philosophie Ihnen unerwünschte E-Mails zukommen zu lassen. Falls Sie keine weiteren E-Mails vom FIW erhalten möchten, schreiben Sie bitte an das Projektbüro<mailto:fiw-pb@fiw.at> mit dem Betreff "Abmelden". __________________________________ Das Kompetenzzentrum FIW (http://www.fiw.ac.at/) ist ein Projekt von WIFO, wiiw und WSR im Auftrag des BMWFW. Die Kooperationsvereinbarungen des FIW mit der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, der Universität Wien und der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz werden aus Hochschulraumstrukturmitteln gefördert. Dear Ladies and Gentlemen! We are glad to inform you about the latest news on the FIW project. In this issue: · Invitation: 24th AW-Lecture: "Die digitale Evolution" · Seminar International Economics: "Vertical and Horizontal Dynamics in Export Unit Values" Einladung zur 24. AW-Vorlesung zum Thema "Die digitale Evolution" E I N L A D U N G 24. AW-Vorlesung Dienstag, 13. Juni 2017 Mag. Dr. Wolfgang Schwarzbauer "Die Digitale Evolution" Begrüßung: Dr. Manfred Schekulin (BMWFW) Kommentare: Mag. Julia Bock-Schappelwein (WIFO) Diskussionsleitung: Dr. Manfred Schekulin (BMWFW) Literatur: FIW-Policy Brief Nr. 34 <http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/34_FIW…> Zeit: 9:15 Uhr (pünktlich) bis 10:30 Uhr Ort: Wirtschaftsministerium, Stubenring 1, 1010 Wien, 5. Stock, Pressezentrum AW-Vorlesungen ist eine Veranstaltungsreihe, bei der politikrelevante aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse aus dem Bereich internationale Wirtschaft praxisnah präsentiert und diskutiert werden. Für Kaffee ist gesorgt .... Registration at: http://www.fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=1020 (The lecture will be held in German language.) FIW-wiiw Seminar in International Economics Monday, 12 June 2017, 3.00 - 4.30 pm wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Wien Vertical and Horizontal Dynamics in Export Unit Values" Konstantin Wacker University of Mainz (JGU), Germany The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Jan Trenczek (University of Mainz). In this paper, we look at patterns of vertical ('within-product') vs. horizontal ('between' products) export specialisation using unit values on the 6-digit level. We start by documenting widespread convergence in products' unit values as a proxy for export quality. The robustness of this result raises the question why countries do not converge in income levels. We then document that products usually exported by developing countries have shorter quality ladders. This limits the scope for vertical specialization and catch-up, and suggests that vertical specialization can only be one aspect of countries' upgrading strategy that has to be complemented by horizontal upgrading across goods and sectors. Against this background, we analyse countries' vertical vs. horizontal specialization dynamics from the mid-1990s until 2007. Our main contribution in this regard is a methodological decomposition of countries' aggregate export unit values into vertical upgrading and horizontal sector dynamics, reflecting that countries can either upgrade each product in their export portfolio, or they can increasingly move towards sectors with higher unit value perspectives. We then apply this decomposition to trends in aggregate unit values of 154 countries. Although both dimensions are important in countries' dynamic export pattern, the latter seems to be quantitatively dominating, with entry and exit of products playing an important role as well. Keywords: Unit value, convergence, structural change in exports. JEL Codes: F14, F43. We kindly ask you to [undefined] register<https://wiiw.ac.at/vertical-and-horizontal-dynamics-in-export-unit-values-e…> for the event. Participation is free of charge. After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks. This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a center of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW). The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw<http://wiiw.ac.at/fiw-wiiw-seminars-in-international-economics-es-6.html> or FIW<http://www.fiw.ac.at/index.php?id=748> website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage<http://wiiw.ac.at/events.html> after the respective seminars. Kind regards Alexander Hudetz FIW Project Office _____________________________________________________ The 'center of excellence' FIW (http://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a project of WIFO, wiiw and WSR on behalf of the BMWFW. The FIW cooperation with the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna and the Johannes Kepler University Linz is supported by the former Federal Ministry of Science and Research (now integrated in the Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy).

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Ausschreibung einer Ökonomenstelle am Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS)
by IHS Economics 30 May '17

30 May '17

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, im Namen von Herrn Dr. Michael Reiter, Forschungsgruppenleiter Makroökonomie und Öffentliche Finanzen, möchte ich Sie darauf hinweisen, dass am Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS) die Stelle einer Ökonomin/eines Ökonomen im Bereich Öffentliche Finanzen zu besetzen ist. Im Anhang finden Sie bitte den Ausschreibungstext. Die Bewerbungsfrist endet am 30.06.2017. Vielen Dank für Ihre Unterstützung. Mit freundlichen Grüßen Helga Hanl-Lohn Helga Hanl-Lohn Administrative Manager [cid:image001.jpg@01D00346.2B13B410] Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria Tel: +43 1 59991 - 250 E-mail: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at> Web: http://www.ihs.ac.at<http://www.ihs.ac.at/>

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Call for papers: WIFO - Regional Economics Workshop
by Matthias Firgo 30 May '17

30 May '17

Ladies and Gentlemen, please find attached the Call for Papers for the 2017 WIFO - Regional Economics Workshop in cooperation with the Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR) Summer Conference in Regional Science. The joint International Summer Conference takes place in Vienna on September 25th and 26th. The main focus is on topics around digitalization, settlement patterns and urbanization. Additionally, empirical contributions on other topics in regional economics are also welcome. Abstracts of papers (minimum of 300 words) and/or full papers intended for presentation should be prepared in PDF-format and be sent to regional(a)wifo.ac.at<mailto:regional@wifo.ac.at> by July 28th. Further details are provided in the attachment. Best regards, Matthias Firgo ----- Dr. Matthias Firgo WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Austrian Institute of Economic Research Arsenal, Objekt 20 1030 Wien / 1030 Vienna Österreich / Austria Tel +43 1 798 26 01 - 471 matthias.firgo(a)wifo.ac.at<mailto:matthias.firgo@wifo.ac.at> http://matthias.firgo.wifo.ac.at<http://matthias.firgo.wifo.ac.at/>

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WG: E-Mail - 3972_001.pdf
by Price-Placzek, Maria 29 May '17

29 May '17

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren ! Ich ersuche um die Ausschreibung der beiliegenden Dissertationsstelle an der Universität Innsbruck, Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät. Mit bestem Dank und freundlichen Grüßen Maria Price-Placzek, Institutsreferentin Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie,-politik und - geschichte Fakultät f. Volkswirtschaft und Statistik Tel.: +43-(0)512-507-71003 Fax: +43-(0)512-507- 71199 [Beschreibung: uni-ibk] Universität Innsbruck Universitätsstrasse 15a 6020 Innsbruck

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Reminder: Invitation: Vienna Joint Economics Seminar (June 1): Elias Papaioannou
by IHS Economics 29 May '17

29 May '17

[cid:image002.png@01CEBF6B.D0B28790] VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR INVITATION R E M I N D E R The University of Vienna and the Institute for Advanced Studies cordially invite you to the following Vienna Joint Economics Seminar <http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Papers/20130226_Paper_Zimme…> Thursday, June 1, 2017 University of Vienna, Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Vienna, VGSE seminar room, 3rd floor 1:15 pm Elias Papaioannou<https://www.london.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty/profiles/p/papaioannou-…> London Business School Land Mines and Spatial Development Land mines are a uniquely savage in modern warfare remaining on the ground long after the cessation of hostilities. Nevertheless, little (if any) research exists on the consequences of land-mine clearance. In this paper we explore the economic consequences of landmine clearance in Mozambique, the only so-far heavily-mined country (at the end of warfare in 1992), that has been officially declared land-mine-free in 2015. Our analysis proceeds in five steps. First, we describe the self-collected geo-referenced data on land mine contamination and their subsequent clearance during 1992-2015. We are able to provide for the first time to the Mozambican government, the United Nations, and the various NGOs involved in the demining process, an almost complete documentation of this gigantic and often chaotic process that lasted more than two decades. We also examine the correlates of the distribution of minefields at the end of the war and the timing of removal. Second, we exploit variation in the timing of demining across localities to assess its impact on economic activity, as reflected on satellite images of light density at night. We compare Mozambican localities, where demining took place in a given period, to those that either had no land mines at the end of the civil war or were mined but not cleared yet. The difference-in-difference specifications reveal small-to-moderate effects on local development. Third, we examine the heterogeneous impact of land mine clearance to shed light on the mechanisms and offer some guidance to ongoing demining activities at other parts of the world. Local trade hubs and larger cities benefit more whereas demining agricultural areas allows for a reallocation of farming activity towards more fertile areas. Fourth, we examine the nation-wide implications of land mine clearance recognizing the fact that removal of land mines in one locality may impact other regions through the transportation network. To do so we identify how the process of land-mine clearance reconfigured the accessibility of the pre-existing transportation network over time and apply a "market-access" approach that quantifies the aggregate effects of land mine clearance on spatial development. This method, derived from general equilibrium trade theory, quantifies both direct and the indirect effects (stemming from changes in the network structure) of land mine clearance and opening of roads and railroads on economic activity. The estimates reveal an economically large and statistically precise impact of land mines removal on aggregate economic development. To improve on identification we focus on localities which were spared from any landmine contamination at the end of the civil war. For these places, changes in the market access via the transportation network stem from landmine clearance in other regions. And we also estimate the market-access development link using only interventions affecting the limited colonial road-railroad network. Fifth, we perform counterfactual policy simulations to estimate the likely gains of demining if it was centrally coordinated and strategically planned targeting the key colonial development "corridors" or the roads connecting the three main ports. We also approximate the gains if demining was targeting the main hubs of the infrastructure system using an "optimal node" network algorithm. Our analysis reveals large gains from the presence of central planning and strategic coordination among the demining operators. (joint work with Giorgio Chiovelli and Stelios Michalopoulos) We are looking forward to seeing you! Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria Tel.: +43 1 599 91 232 e-Mail: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at> http://www.ihs.ac.at LINKS DIRECTIONS TO<https://www.google.com/maps?q=Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz+1,+1090+Vienna+%28VGS…> UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA on Google maps<https://www.google.com/maps?q=Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz+1,+1090+Vienna+%28VGS…> VIENNA JOINT ECONOMICS SEMINAR<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=pjgnue7cg8r0m0up9v27riruic%40grou…> ECONOMICS SEMINARS <https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> IN VIENNA<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> [cid:image003.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://ihs.ac.at/> [cid:image004.jpg@01CEBF6B.D0B28790]<http://econ.univie.ac.at/home/> Diese Zusendung erfolgt entsprechend den Bestimmungen des TKG 247107. Sollten Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen wuenschen, senden Sie uns bitte eine kurze Mitteilung an: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. If you do not want to receive our mailings please send an e-mail to: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. Also sent to noeg-l(a)wu.ac.at<mailto:noeg-l@wu.ac.at> (https://mailman.wu.ac.at/mailman/listinfo/noeg-l)

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Distinguished lecture Christopher Slobogin, May 31 2017, 12.30 hours, Law School
by wolfgang.weigel＠univie.ac.at 24 May '17

24 May '17

Madam, Sir, Dear Members it is my pleasure to forward an invitation for a distinguished lecture by Christopher Slobogin of Vanderbilt Law School on Policing the Cloud Wednesday, May 31, 2017 Law School Building (Juridicum) Seminar 20 12.30 hours sharp Warm regards Wolfgang Weigel --- This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus The following section of this message contains a file attachment prepared for transmission using the Internet MIME message format. If you are using Pegasus Mail, or any other MIME-compliant system, you should be able to save it or view it from within your mailer. If you cannot, please ask your system administrator for assistance. ---- File information ----------- File: SloboginDLS310517.pdf Date: 24 May 2017, 17:41 Size: 91338 bytes. Type: Adobe Acrobat Document

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Einladung zum VOSTA-Freitagsseminar - 9. Juni 2017 - GELDZENTRUM
by Event-Management 24 May '17

24 May '17

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren! Anbei übermitteln wir Ihnen die Einladung zu einem VOSTA-Freitagsseminar von Rama Cont (Imperial College London) und Eric Schaanning (Imperial College and Norges Bank), mit dem Titel "Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress-testing". Termin Freitag, 9. Juni 2017, 11.00 Uhr Ort Oesterreichische Nationalbank - GELDZENTRUM Garnisongasse 15, 1090 Wien Veranstaltungssaal, Geldzentrum, 3.OG Abstract We present a framework for modelling the phenomenon of fire sales in a network of financial institutions with common asset holdings, subject to leverage or capital constraints. Asset losses triggered by macro shocks may interact with portfolio constraints, resulting in liquidation of assets, which in turn a affects market prices, leading to contagion of losses when portfolios are marked to market. If mark-to-market losses are large, this may in turn lead to a new round of fire sales. In contrast to balance sheet contagion mechanisms based on direct linkages, this price mediated contagion is transmitted through common asset holdings, which we quantify through liquidity-weighted overlaps across portfolios. Exposure to price-mediated contagion leads to the concept of indirect exposure to an asset class, as a consequence of which the risk of a portfolio depends on the matrix of asset holdings of other large and leveraged portfolios with similar assets. Our model provides an operational systemic stress testing method for quantifying the exposure of the financial system to these effects. Using data from the European Banking Authority, we apply this method to the examine the exposure of the EU banking system to price-mediated contagion. Our results indicate that, even with optimistic estimates of market depth, moderately large macro-shocks may trigger fire sales which then lead to substantial losses across bank portfolios, modifying the outcome of bank stress tests. Moreover, we show that price-mediated contagion leads to a heterogeneous cross-sectional loss distribution across banks, which cannot be replicated simply by applying a macro-shock to bank portfolios in absence of fire sales. We propose a bank-level Indicator, based on the analysis of liquidity weighted overlaps across bank portfolios, which is shown to be strongly correlated with bank losses due to fire sales and may be used to quantify the contribution of a financial institution to price-mediated contagion. Unlike models based on 'leverage targeting', which assume symmetric reactions to gains or losses, our approach is based on the asymmetric interaction of portfolio losses with one sided constraints such as leverage or capital requirements, makes a distinction between insolvency and illiquidity and leads to substantially different loss estimates is stress scenarios. Um Ihre Rückmeldung ersuchen wir bis Mittwoch, 7. Juni 2017. Wir freuen uns auf Ihre Teilnahme und stehen für Fragen gerne zur Verfügung. Mit freundlichen Grüßen, Event-Management Communications and Financial Literacy Division Oesterreichische Nationalbank Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria T +43(0)1 404 20 6620 event-management(a)oenb.at<mailto:event-management@oenb.at> www.oenb.at<http://www.oenb.at> Diese E-Mail kann vertrauliche Informationen enthalten und irrtümlich an Sie gelangt sein. In diesem Fall informieren Sie bitte sofort die Absenderin bzw. den Absender und vernichten Sie diese E-Mail. Das unerlaubte Kopieren sowie die unbefugte Weitergabe dieser Mail oder von Teilen dieser Mail sind nicht gestattet.

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REMINDER: wiiw seminar No More ‘Business as Usual’ - Trump, Brexit and the Transatlantic Economy, 29 May 2017
by wiiw Events (noeg) 24 May '17

24 May '17

[http://wiiw.ac.at] Dear Colleague, We cordially invite you to the next wiiw seminar on MONDAY, 29 MAY 2017, 4 PM wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, lecture hall (entrance from ground floor) NO MORE ‘BUSINESS AS USUAL’ - TRUMP, BREXIT AND THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY DANIEL S. HAMILTON Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation and Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Abstract The decision by the United Kingdom to quit the European Union and the election of Donald Trump, an anti-establishment economic nationalist, as the 45th president of the United States, has rocked the very foundation of the transatlantic partnership at a time when the European Union is besieged by a daunting array of simultaneous challenges, from terrorism and refugee streams to tensions with Russia, turmoil across neighbouring North Africa and the Middle East, and populist pressures at home. The entire global economy has been thrown off kilter by the stunning developments; the liberal economic order now rests on some uncertain transatlantic foundations. What do these developments portend for US-European economic relations? How are US economic ties with the UK, the EU, and non-EU Europe likely to evolve? What role are protectionist and nationalist pressures likely to play? Is there any prospect for US-EU trade negotiations beyond TTIP? WE KINDLY ASK YOU TO REGISTER [https://wiiw.ac.at/no-more-business-as-usual-trump-brexit-and-the-transatla…] FOR THE EVENT. PARTICIPATION IS FREE OF CHARGE. (Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our homepage https://wiiw.ac.at/events.html [http://wiiw.ac.at/events.html] after the respective seminars.) Best regards, Dr. Michael Landesmann _Senior Research Associate_ Dr. Sándor Richter _Organiser_ Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw) The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Rahlgasse 3, A-1060 Wien https://www.wiiw.ac.at/ [http://www.wiiw.ac.at/] ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you do not want to receive further mailings please send an e-mail to boenisch(a)wiiw.ac.at Falls Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen des wiiw wünschen senden Sie bitte ein E-Mail an boenisch(a)wiiw.ac.at

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OeNB - Einladung zum VOSTA-Freitagsseminar - 7. Juni 2017 - GELDZENTRUM
by Event-Management 24 May '17

24 May '17

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren! Anbei übermitteln wir Ihnen die Einladung zu einem VOSTA-Freitagsseminar von Rama Cont (Imperial College London) und Eric Schaanning (Imperial College and Norges Bank), mit dem Titel "Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress-testing". Termin Freitag, 9. Juni 2017, 11.00 Uhr Ort Oesterreichische Nationalbank - GELDZENTRUM Garnisongasse 15, 1090 Wien Veranstaltungssaal, Geldzentrum, 3.OG Abstract We present a framework for modelling the phenomenon of fire sales in a network of financial institutions with common asset holdings, subject to leverage or capital constraints. Asset losses triggered by macro shocks may interact with portfolio constraints, resulting in liquidation of assets, which in turn a affects market prices, leading to contagion of losses when portfolios are marked to market. If mark-to-market losses are large, this may in turn lead to a new round of fire sales. In contrast to balance sheet contagion mechanisms based on direct linkages, this price mediated contagion is transmitted through common asset holdings, which we quantify through liquidity-weighted overlaps across portfolios. Exposure to price-mediated contagion leads to the concept of indirect exposure to an asset class, as a consequence of which the risk of a portfolio depends on the matrix of asset holdings of other large and leveraged portfolios with similar assets. Our model provides an operational systemic stress testing method for quantifying the exposure of the financial system to these effects. Using data from the European Banking Authority, we apply this method to the examine the exposure of the EU banking system to price-mediated contagion. Our results indicate that, even with optimistic estimates of market depth, moderately large macro-shocks may trigger fire sales which then lead to substantial losses across bank portfolios, modifying the outcome of bank stress tests. Moreover, we show that price-mediated contagion leads to a heterogeneous cross-sectional loss distribution across banks, which cannot be replicated simply by applying a macro-shock to bank portfolios in absence of fire sales. We propose a bank-level Indicator, based on the analysis of liquidity weighted overlaps across bank portfolios, which is shown to be strongly correlated with bank losses due to fire sales and may be used to quantify the contribution of a financial institution to price-mediated contagion. Unlike models based on 'leverage targeting', which assume symmetric reactions to gains or losses, our approach is based on the asymmetric interaction of portfolio losses with one sided constraints such as leverage or capital requirements, makes a distinction between insolvency and illiquidity and leads to substantially different loss estimates is stress scenarios. Um Ihre Rückmeldung ersuchen wir bis Mittwoch, 7. Juni 2017. Wir freuen uns auf Ihre Teilnahme und stehen für Fragen gerne zur Verfügung. Mit freundlichen Grüßen, Event-Management Communications and Financial Literacy Division Oesterreichische Nationalbank Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria T +43(0)1 404 20 6620 event-management(a)oenb.at<mailto:event-management@oenb.at> www.oenb.at<http://www.oenb.at> Diese E-Mail kann vertrauliche Informationen enthalten und irrtümlich an Sie gelangt sein. In diesem Fall informieren Sie bitte sofort die Absenderin bzw. den Absender und vernichten Sie diese E-Mail. Das unerlaubte Kopieren sowie die unbefugte Weitergabe dieser Mail oder von Teilen dieser Mail sind nicht gestattet.

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REMINDER: Invitation: Joint Vienna Macro Seminar (May 30): Paul de Grauwe
by IHS Economics 24 May '17

24 May '17

[cid:image002.png@01D2D46F.F014A970][cid:image003.png@01D2D46F.F014A970] JOINT VIENNA MACROECONOMICS SEMINAR INVITATION R E M I N D E R The Joint Vienna Institute and the Institute for Advanced Studies cordially invite you to the following Joint Vienna Macroeconomics Seminar <http://www.ihs.ac.at/vienna/resources/Economics/Papers/20130226_Paper_Zimme…> Tuesday, May 30, 2017 Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna Lecture Room E02, ground floor 5:00 pm Paul de Grauwe<http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/staff/academicStaff/DeGrauwe/Home.as…> LSE European Institute Inflation targets and the zero lower bound in a behavioral macroeconomic model Abstract: We analyse the relation between the level of the inflation target and the zero lower bound (ZLB) imposed on the nominal interest rate in the framework of a behavioral New-Keynesian macroeconomic model in which agents, experiencing cognitive limitations, use adaptive learning forecasting rules. The model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits) that lead to non-normal distributions of the output gap. We find that when the inflation target is too close to zero, the economy can get gripped by "chronic pessimism" that leads to a dominance of negative output gaps and recessions, and in turn feeds back on expectations producing long waves of pessimism. Low inflation targets create the risk of persistence of recessions and low growth. We conclude that the 2% inflation target, now pursued by many central banks, is too low. paper jointly with Yuemei Ji (University College London) We are looking forward to seeing you! IHS Institute for Advanced Studies Josefstädter Straße 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria Tel.: +43 1 599 91 - 0 e-Mail: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at> http://www.ihs.ac.at<http://www.ihs.ac.at/> LINKS DIRECTIONS TO IHS on Google maps<https://www.google.at/maps/place/Institut+f%C3%BCr+H%C3%B6here+Studien/@48.…> JOINT VIENNA MACRO SEMINAR<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=6h1m59s6inkmo4ppa30s4itb6k%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=6h1m59s6inkmo4ppa30s4itb6k%40grou…> ECONOMICS SEMINARS <https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> IN VIENNA<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> on Google calendar<https://www.google.com/calendar/embed?src=o7e40khrmr1vn2lo20mhbe539g%40grou…> [cid:image008.jpg@01CEA8B6.39ACE730]<http://www.ihs.ac.at/> [JVI_2011]<http://www.jvi.org/> Diese Zusendung erfolgt entsprechend den Bestimmungen des TKG 247107. Sollten Sie keine weiteren Zusendungen wuenschen, senden Sie uns bitte eine kurze Mitteilung an: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. If you do not want to receive our mailings please send an e-mail to: economics(a)ihs.ac.at<mailto:economics@ihs.ac.at>. Also sent to noeg-l(a)wu.ac.at<mailto:noeg-l@wu.ac.at> (https://mailman.wu.ac.at/mailman/listinfo/noeg-l.)

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